Russia Approaches Armenia-Azerbaijan Agreement with Caution; Iran Opposes 'Trump Route' Corridor
The United States brokered a historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025, aiming to end decades of conflict and open a strategic transit link known as the Zangezur Corridor or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The agreement was signed at the White House by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
The corridor, which will be governed under Armenian law, aims to connect Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan directly, bypassing Iran and Russia. The US has obtained exclusive development rights for 99 years and plans to sublease to a consortium to build infrastructure such as rail, oil, gas, and fiber optics along the corridor.
Armenia, while interested in the corridor as it avoids isolation and closed borders, emphasizes that the route respects its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, sees the corridor as crucial for connecting to Nakhchivan and enhancing its role as a trade and energy hub.
The US aims to reduce regional influence from Russia, Iran, and China by controlling this key transit route and offering security guarantees to Armenia against Azerbaijani aggression. Russia, which has a military base in Armenia, is largely sidelined in this new deal, contributing to continued geopolitical tensions in the South Caucasus. Iran strongly opposes the corridor, viewing it as a threat to its regional influence and security.
The peace deal was welcomed by Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, and the EU, with the EU calling it a 'major development'. However, the agreement leaves many questions unanswered, and analysts urge caution. The International Crisis Group warns that the deal might not resolve all the issues, and the peace process could still be derailed due to the divisive issue of a constitutional referendum scheduled for 2027 in Armenia.
As the corridor project moves forward under US auspices, it remains controversial. Armenia cautiously supports it under strict terms, Azerbaijan is strongly in favor, the US drives the initiative to curtail Russia and Iran’s influence, whereas Iran opposes the corridor vehemently. Russia has a diminished role compared to the original 2020 framework, resulting in continued geopolitical tensions in the South Caucasus.
- The Zangezur Corridor, also known as the TRIPP, will be governed under Armenian law, but Russia's influence in the South Caucasus may continue to be diminished as the US seeks to reduce regional influence from Russia, Iran, and China.
- The US has obtained exclusive development rights for 99 years to build infrastructure along the Zangezur Corridor and aims to sublease to a consortium, making Turkey a potential partner due to its construction and infrastructure expertise, given the Turkish firms' involvement in similar projects.
- The Turkish government, under President Erdogan, has expressed interest in the Zangezur Corridor's development, considering it an opportunity to strengthen Turkey's role in policy-and-legislation, politics, and the general-news landscape of the South Caucasus region.
- As the peace agreement mends relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, NATO is observing the situation closely, monitoring potential implications of the corridor on the security and economy of the regional countries, including Turkey.
- In light of Turkey's interest in the Zangezur Corridor and its role as a potential partner in its development, many analysts are scrutinizing Turkey's policies and the possible economic benefits for the Turkish economy if it becomes involved in the construction of the strategic transit link.
