Russia Achieves Long-Sought Goal with Putin's Success
The upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled to take place in Alaska, has stirred a wave of speculation and concern in Ukraine.
While Putin has achieved his goal of negotiating about Ukraine with the US, a preliminary objective he has pursued since the Normandy format, the Kremlin's intentions remain unclear. There is a possibility that Putin may present Ukraine as negotiating incapable with an unacceptable offer.
Ukraine has agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, but the majority of the population supports this only under certain conditions. The Ukrainian government has rejected the idea of evacuating cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, viewing it as a massive and easy success for Russia and an invitation to a new invasion.
Voluntarily leaving these cities would not only be militarily detrimental for Ukraine, but also legally, as recognizing the captured territories as Russian is seen as equally unacceptable.
The Kremlin views the US as the real decision-makers in the Ukraine conflict, with the Ukrainian government seen as mere "puppets." This perception is further reinforced by Trump's previous announcements of plans to tighten sanctions against Russia if they were not ready for a ceasefire.
However, it is highly unlikely that the USA will participate in providing security guarantees for Ukraine, and whether European countries can make promises that would deter Russia from a new attack is also questionable.
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine is at its peak, with strategic successes being achieved in towns like Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, despite a possible reduction in air attacks. Putin's concerns, such as Ukraine not joining NATO, recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, autonomy for Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk), and removal of Western military influence near Russia’s borders, continue to loom large.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted that territorial questions were discussed during his video conference with President Donald Trump, but these must be linked to security guarantees for Ukraine from the Ukrainian perspective.
As of now, there are no confirmed or publicly detailed specific demands from Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine for any upcoming summit with Donald Trump. The outcome of the summit is uncertain, but the Kremlin may use it to further weaken Ukraine's position by portraying them as incapable negotiators.
The Kremlin's attempt to present Ukraine as negotiating incapable poses a significant danger for Ukraine, as it could potentially undermine their position in ongoing negotiations and increase the risk of further hostilities.
The current US administration of President Donald Trump is not seen as an ally of Ukraine, despite continuing to sell weapons to Kyiv. The fact that the meeting is taking place in Alaska is already seen as a success for Putin in Kyiv.
Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, had not simply broken off direct contacts with the Kremlin. The Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, occurred despite clear warnings from Washington.
In the face of these challenges, Ukraine looks at the Alaska summit with some bewilderment, navigating a complex web of geopolitical interests and power dynamics. The outcome of the summit remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Ukraine's future hangs in the balance.
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