Rule favoring Nagelsmann granted exceptionally
The race for the top spots in the FIFA World Ranking is heating up, with the updated rankings set to be released on July 10. This is crucial for determining the group draw for the 2026 World Cup, as the top nine teams will be drawn with the three hosts.
The German national team, currently in ninth place, is poised to maintain its position, thanks in part to the unique points allocation system. Despite a potential loss in a tournament final, teams like Germany still earn significant points compared to earlier stage losses, due to the high importance of finals in the ranking formula.
For instance, when a team like Germany or Italy loses in a tournament final, they earn points corresponding to a loss at the highest tournament stage. The final is weighted very heavily given its importance. Despite this, they still gain more points than they would for losses in previous rounds.
This system ensures that reaching a final positively affects points but final defeat results in a lower points gain than the champion. As a result, teams like Germany and Italy can maintain high rankings even with a final loss, thanks to accumulated points from earlier wins.
The German national team, if it maintains its current position, would not face top teams like Argentina, Spain, or France in the group stage. This is a significant advantage, as the first pot in the group draw is highly coveted.
Meanwhile, Italy's chances of gaining many points in the upcoming qualifiers appear slim. With matches against Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova on the horizon, they are expected to lose points, which could potentially boost Germany's ranking further.
Julian Nagelsmann, the coach of the German football national team, has emphasised the importance of the first pot in the group draw. The draw for the 2026 World Cup is scheduled to take place in early December, with Las Vegas being a possible venue.
Sources: [1] FIFA World Ranking Points Allocation System: https://www.fifa.com/worldranking/information/ranking-regulations/ [2] FIFA World Ranking Explanation: https://www.fifa.com/worldranking/information/ranking-explanation/ [3] FIFA World Ranking Points Allocation: https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/fifa-world-ranking-explained-how-do-points-work/18p3w86l359f14c2w1l9jxkxv
The German national team, currently holding the ninth spot, may maintain its position in the FIFA World Ranking due to the unique points allocation system. This high ranking will provide them an advantage in the group draw for the 2026 World Cup, potentially avoiding team battles against top-ranked contenders like Argentina, Spain, or France.
Meanwhile, Italy's upcoming matches against Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova might result in points lost, potentially further benefitting the German team's ranking.
