[Roundtable Discussion] Key issues and viewpoints in Germany's election race
Germany Heads to Elections Amidst Crisis and Polarization
Germany is gearing up for its federal elections on February 23rd, 2023, following the collapse of the incumbent coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The coalition, known as the "traffic light coalition," comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), and The Greens, disintegrated due to disagreements over economic policies, growing public dissatisfaction, and severe electoral losses in state elections.
The impending elections will determine the composition of the Bundestag, the German federal parliament. The roundtable discussion, co-organized by the Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE) and Sciences Po's School of Public Affairs, aims to explore the potential consequences of the German elections for Germany and Europe. Speakers at the discussion include Luis Sattelmayer, associated with Sciences Po's School of Public Affairs, CEE; Emiliano Grossman; and Isabelle Guinaudeau, associated with the Centre Marc Bloch in Berlin, CNRS, and Sciences Po's School of Public Affairs, CEE.
Migration and asylum policies have been a significant issue in the election campaign, with heightened concerns following recent mass killings involving asylum seekers. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained ground at the state level and continues to perform well in opinion polls. Friedrich Merz, the candidate for the CDU-CSU opposition, has taken a hard line on irregular migration to counter AfD's rise.
Economic policies and taxation have also been at the forefront of the election discourse. The SPD has pushed for continuing minimum wage increases and proposed wealth taxes, while the CDU/CSU aims to reduce tax burdens and promote deregulation. The FDP advocates tax breaks and civil liberties with a libertarian angle.
Security concerns have risen after mass killings, influencing election discourse. Climate policies have also been a contentious issue, with Merz's limited enthusiasm for climate protection causing tension within the coalition.
While the search results do not explicitly detail the US election’s direct influence on German elections, there is a notable mention that external influences like "Trump’s February surprise" disrupted expectations and heightened political tensions. Right-wing online media played a role in campaigning against certain judicial nominees, indicating that social media and external political events influenced campaign dynamics and heightened polarization.
The expected outcomes from the German federal election 2023 include the CDU-CSU remaining the strongest force but needing to form coalitions with either SPD, Greens, or both to govern. The AfD achieved unprecedented support (~20%), trailing CDU-CSU closely, indicating a strong far-right presence within parliament. The outcome risks producing another unstable three-party coalition similar to the previous one led by Scholz.
A Merz-led government signaled a shift toward stricter immigration policies and a tougher stance on irregular migration, potentially affecting European asylum cooperation. Significant investments in military (Bundeswehr) and infrastructure are being planned, aiming to strengthen Germany’s role in Europe’s security landscape and economic development. The rise of AfD might polarize domestic politics and challenge Germany’s traditional centrist policymaking, possibly influencing Europe-wide right-wing trends.
Merkel’s centrist legacy appears to be waning, possibly resulting in more fragmented governance and shifting European alliances. Overall, the 2023 election marks a pivotal moment, with migration and security as core issues, a strong far-right presence, and emerging challenges to coalition stability and policy direction within Germany and Europe.
- The discussion co-organized by CEE and Sciences Po's School of Public Affairs aims to address the potential consequences of migration and asylum policies in the upcoming German elections.
- Climate policies have been a contentious issue in the election, with candidates taking different stances that may influence Europe-wide trends.
- Crime and justice issues, such as mass killings involving asylum seekers, have contributed to a shift toward stricter immigration policies in Germany.
- Political polarization and external influences, like Trump’s February surprise, have disrupted expectations and increased tensions in the German election, potentially shaping Europe-wide politics.
