Roundtable discussion: Key concerns and viewpoints in Germany's elections
The upcoming German elections on February 23rd, 2023, are shaping up to be a significant event, with the incumbent coalition's failure and the rise of right-wing populist parties posing challenges for the country's domestic and European policy directions.
The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition, public dissatisfaction with the coalition's governance, and rising support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have been the main reasons behind the incumbent coalition's failure. The AfD's performance has been bolstered by security concerns after recent mass killings involving asylum seekers, which intensified public debate and boosted the AfD's vote share.
Key issues in the election include immigration, national security, political fragmentation, coalition viability, and economic policy challenges. The center-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, currently holds a polling lead but with diminished margins, reflecting voter fragmentation and uncertainty over coalition possibilities.
The stakes of the campaign are high, with the potential for a fragile coalition government, likely a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD, with reduced parliamentary majorities complicating policy-making and constitutional amendments, such as managing large debt packages. This political fragmentation and the rise of the AfD, a nationalist party, could impact Germany's domestic and European policy directions, affecting EU cohesion and Germany's stance in transatlantic relations.
Social media continues to play a critical role, shaping public opinion and campaign dynamics, possibly amplifying nationalistic or populist messages that benefit parties like the AfD. The complex interplay between election outcomes in Germany and the US may affect European strategic alignments, particularly on security, economic, and digital governance issues relevant to both continents.
A roundtable discussion co-organized by the Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE) and Sciences Po's School of Public Affairs will explore questions about the election, including its potential consequences for Germany and Europe. Speakers at the roundtable include Isabelle Guinaudeau (Centre Marc Bloch, Berlin, CNRS, and Sciences Po, CEE), Emiliano Grossman, and Luis Sattelmayer (Sciences Po, CEE).
Polling data from 2025 shows CDU/CSU leading but with the AfD strongly positioned second, indicating ongoing political volatility. The outcome of the election will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Germany and Europe, making it a pivotal moment to watch.
The unfolding election landscape in Germany, marked by the collapse of the coalition government, the resurgence of the AfD, and ongoing debates on immigration, national security, and Euro cohesion, signifies that the economics and politics of policy-and-legislation will be heavily influenced by the elections' outcome. The complex dynamics of the campaign, exacerbated by social media engagement and potentially nationalistic rhetoric, emphasize the crucial role of politics in shaping the country's future.
