Roughnecks of Houston versus Stallions of Birmingham: Betting Odds, Forecasts, and Choices for the 11th of May
On Sunday, Mother's Day, we've got a USFL doubleheader to look forward to, starting with the Birmingham Stallions facing off against the Houston Roughnecks. However, the oddsmakers seem to be tobacco-hooch-drunk on the Stallions in this matchup, and I beg to differ.
Kickoff is at noon ET, with ESPN and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.
Houston Roughnecks vs Birmingham Stallions Odds
As I see it, the Stallions are favored by 5.5 points, and the moneyline reads -265 for the home team. On the flip side, the Roughnecks come back as a decent +215 underdog. The total points is sitting pretty at 38.5 points. These two teams squared off earlier in Week 4, with Birmingham taking the win, 23-16. But things have changed since then, particularly who's behind center for the Stallions.
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Roughnecks vs Stallions Predictions
I reckon the Roughnecks give the Stallions a run for their money, mate. Stallions quarterback Matt Corral is out with a hip injury, so now they're saddled with the Northern Arizona product, Case Cookus, under center. The guy is only completing 55% of his passes this season and managed a mere 166 yards in last week's victory over last-place San Antonio. That's two weeks of less than 170 yards passing for Cookus. He's no Corral, who has NFL experience and tossed 648 yards in his three starts.
Things get worse for the Stallions when you see their ground game is about as devastating as a limp worm. They don't have a single running back averaging more than 3.8 yards per carry. Their top three rushers are all quarterbacks, and while Cookus has run for 98 yards on 11 attempts, most of that came in one game.
On the other hand, the Roughnecks' defense is the third best scoring defense in the UFL. They're top-notch in forcing fumbles and takeaways. They also rank third in tackles for loss and fourth in sacks.
UFL Scoring Defense Leaders
Meanwhile, navigating the Stallions' defense isn't an easy feat. Birmingham leads the UFL in scoring defense and is number one against the run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush. Against the pass, however, tells a different story. That's where Houston should test the waters, as the Stallions are second worst in both yards and completions allowed.
Jalan McClendon, who boasts one of the league's top completion percentages at 70.3%, should find success through the air. His primary target will be Justin Hall, the league's top receiver in terms of catches. Hall's short to intermediate routes lead to plenty of easy completions.
Houston Roughnecks vs Birmingham Stallions Picks
- Houston Roughnecks +5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Much like the Stallions, Houston's run game is about as exciting as a spoonful of uncured oatmeal. Still, I've got faith they can move the ball through the air enough to keep this contest close, perhaps even pulling off the upset.
These teams are more evenly matched than a 5.5-point spread suggests. That's exacerbated with Cookus leading the Stallions offense, as he just doesn't have the ceiling to warrant laying this many points. I foresee him struggling to drive scoring plays against a solid Roughnecks defense, offering McClendon a shot to come out victorious.
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Enrichment Insights
- Relevant Factors:
- The Houston Roughnecks have won their last two games, giving them momentum heading into this matchup.
- The absence of Stallions quarterback Matt Corral, who is out with a hip injury, could impact their playstyle.
- Key Points to Consider:
- The Roughnecks' defense has improved, particularly in terms of forcing fumbles and takeaways.
- The Stallions' ground game is somewhat abysmal, with their top rushers all being quarterbacks.
- Potential Outcomes:
- If the Roughnecks can capitalize on the Stallions' adjustment to a new quarterback, they may be able to keep the game close or even pull off the upset.
- The under could be a promising bet due to the Roughnecks' improved defensive performance and the Stallions' expected shift towards more ground plays.
- The Roughnecks, despite being listed as underdogs, may give the Stallions a tough challenge in the USFL matchup, particularly with the injury of the Stallions' quarterback, Matt Corral.
- According to odds provided by DraftKings, the Stallions are favored by 5.5 points, and the moneyline reads -265 for the home team, while the Roughnecks come back as a decent +215 underdog.
- The Roughnecks have a decent chance to keep the game close, or even win, as their defense has been impressive, especially in terms of forcing fumbles and takeaways.
- The quarterback for the Stallions, Case Cookus, has struggled this season, with a completion rate of only 55% and managing just 166 yards in last week's victory over the San Antonio Generals.
