Romania's ruling coalition's candidate is reportedly gathering momentum ahead of the May presidential elections, according to a recent CURS poll.

Halfway through Romania's presidential race for May 2025, the polls paint a tight competition with a heap of question marks. Here's the latest lowdown:

Current Poll Leaders (First Round)

George Simion (AUR, far-right/ECR): Striding ahead with a whopping 33.1% after vote readjustment, up from the previous 31.2% in March. His nationalist pitch and anti-establishment tirade have ignited a wave of support, fueled by allegations of Russian meddling in the scrapped November 2024 election.[1][4]
Crin Antonescu (A.RO, pro-EU coalition/EPP-S&D): Clocking in at 21%, he represents the ruling PSD-PNL-UDMR alliance.[2] His campaign aims to bolster centrist and pro-European voters.
Nicușor Dan (Independent, unaffiliated): Hanging tough with 19.4% as the capital's mayor, he emphasizes anti-corruption and reform.[2][4] However, he grapples with challenges from artificial intelligence-driven disinformation campaigns.[4]
Victor Ponta (Independent): Bracing himself at a 9.6% raw support (14.8% redistributed), he's losing steam due to controversies regarding his handling of a 2014 Danube flood incident.[2][4]
Elena Lasconi (USR/RE): Creeping upward to a 4.7% raw (7.3% redistributed), she sparks interest among liberal urban voters.[2][3]

Second-Round Showdowns

Simion vs. Antonescu: This combat is most likely, given their front-runner status. Antonescu would probably attract centrist, EU-aligned voters repulsed by the AUR's far-right agenda, while Simion's support base is more battle-ready.[2][4]
Simion vs. Dan: This duel pits two anti-establishment candidates, potentially splitting reform-minded voters and boosting reliance on undecided voters (approximately 40% still undecided).[4]
Wildcards on the Field:
Undecided voters: High uncertainty could favor Antonescu if turnout outpaces projections.[2][4]
Disinformation: Both Dan and Simion have raised concern over AI-manufactured falsehoods and foreign intrusion.[4]
Ponta's plummet: His waning support might channel votes towards Antonescu or Dan.[2]

The Big Picture

The Constitutional Court derailed the November 2024 first-round results due to suspected Russian hybrid operations bolstering ultranationalist Călin Georgescu, who is now disqualified from running.[1][4] The re-run takes place amid increased scrutiny of electoral integrity and geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe.[1]

Following the tight competition in Romania's 2025 presidential race, Nicusor Dan, the independent mayor of the capital, remains in a strong position with 19.4% of the votes, emphasizing anti-corruption and reform, despite facing challenges from artificial intelligence-driven disinformation campaigns.
George Simion, the frontrunner from the far-right AUR party, has solidified his lead in the polls with 33.1%, fueled by his nationalist pitch and allegations of Russian meddling in the scrapped November 2024 election.
Crin Antonescu, representing the ruling pro-EU coalition, trails behind Simion with 21% of the votes but could potentially attract centrist, EU-aligned voters in a second-round showdown with Simion, should either advance to the runoff.