Rising Trade Values among Three Cardinals vs. Decline for Two at Season's Start
Dating back to the St. Louis Cardinals' end-of-season press conference last fall, the team seemed destined to trade several players from their Major League roster to rejuvenate for the future. However, that didn't pan out, and their only free-agent addition of the offseason, Phil Maton, came late in spring training.
As May begins, the Cardinals are three games below .500 with a 14-17 record and four games behind the National League Central lead. While there's plenty of time for them to emerge as a playoff contender, many expect the team to be sellers come July.
Let's take a look at five players who might be dealt at the deadline this year, whether their trade value has escalated or plummeted since the season started. We'll focus on players who likely would be traded if the team opts to sell, so we won't cover young core members like Brendan Donovan or Lars Nootbaar, or veterans like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray who have no-trade clauses and prefer to stay with the Cardinals.
3 Cardinals who could see their trade value escalate, 2 who might see a decline
Nolan Arenado's potential trade value escalates
The Cardinals pursued an aggressive trade for third baseman Nolan Arenado this offseason. In talks with the front office, Arenado expressed a willingness to be traded to select teams.
Initial trade talks with the Houston Astros ended, and the Boston Red Sox emerged as serious suitors. However, when the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman, they took themselves out of the running. Teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres were other clubs Arenado hoped to join, but nothing materialized.
Coming off a poor 2024 season and a rough 2023 finish, Arenado wasn't particularly attractive to potential trade partners. Despite his reputation as a future Hall of Famer and stellar defense at third base, his power had waned, making him average at best. Teams were reluctant to assume a significant portion of his remaining salary.
Once it became clear that Arenado would be starting the 2025 season with the Cardinals, both sides aimed for a strong rebound year. So far, Arenado's stats have shown significant improvement in OBP, SLG, wOBS, wRC+, BB%, and ISO while striking out less than ever before at just 6.8%.
If Arenado maintains this pace for the next few months, he'll attract a multitude of suitors in July. Although top prospects may be out of reach, he could still command a decent return if this trend continues.
Furthermore, there appears to be increased interest from some of the teams Arenado previously preferred to help bolster their lineups, such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Padres. A solid Arenado could increase the Cardinals' chances of finishing a deal with teams from his preferred list by July.
However, three factors limit his market value: contractual obligations, a no-trade clause, and his age. With around $64 million left on his contract through 2027 and full control over potential destinations, only financially flexible teams and those who comply with his preferences will pursue a trade. Moreover, at 34, teams may hesitate to acquire an aging third baseman even with his Gold Glove defense.
Despite these obstacles, Arenado's resurgence this season has undoubtedly driven trade interest. The team could leverage his strong performance to offset salary obligations, but any trade might require the Cardinals to part with additional assets or absorb some costs. Overall, the most plausible scenario involves a mid-season trade to a contender if the Cardinals no longer appear playoff-bound.
- Following a reported willingness to get traded to select teams, Nolan Arenado's potential value has escalated, with teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres showing interest.
- Arenado's improved statistics in the 2025 season, including a significant decrease in strikeouts, have made him attractive to numerous teams, potentially leading to a trade in July.
- However, Arenado's remaining contract through 2027, no-trade clause, and age could limit his market value, with only financially flexible teams and those meeting his preferences likely to pursue a trade.
- Despite these obstacles, interest from Arenado's preferred teams, such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Padres, has increased due to his improved performance, potentially leading to a mid-season trade if the Cardinals no longer seem playoff-bound.
