Hittin' a Rough Patch: Ryan Helsley's Slumping Trade Value
Rising Trade Value of Three Cardinals and Plummeting Value of Two Others in the Season's Initial Stages
Hey there, buddy! Ryan Helsley's trade value has seen a downturn, but who knows? It could bounce back in a heartbeat. Right now, it's a rocky road for the dude who led MLB in savages last season.
I ain't gonna sugarcoat it - Helsley's off to a rough start in 2025. Already knocking two of his six save attempts out of the park, that's four out of 53 opportunities he spilled last year. So far, he's played in only 10 games due to the Cardinals' bullpen woes and daily ninth-inning dance frustrations. Guess his secret stashes of rust have come from the irregular usage outta the bullpen.
Some stats are worth keeping an eye on, and this situation is no exception. Obviously, his ERA has risen to a whopping 3.60 compared to 2.04 in 2024, 2.45 in 2023, and 1.25 in 2022. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all over 4.00, and he's actually a negative fWAR player at -0.1.
But what's giving me the most cause for concern? Some of those gears beneath the hood. After his slider went from a top contender to the best in baseball last year, it's only been slightly above-average this season. His fastball velocity's still there, but it's been a below-par and easily-swatted pitch so far. Helsley's K% dropped last year to 29.7% from the mid-to-high 30s in '22 and '23, and it's now down to 22.7% this year. His walk rate has skyrocketed almost 10%, from 8.6% in '24 to 18.2% in '25, and his home run rate has jumped from 4.5% to 12.5%.
Yeah, yeah, I get it - small sample sizes. But remember what I always say about relievers? They're all about tiny samples, pal! The Cardinals keeping hold of Helsley this year came with its risks, and even though I was most concerned 'bout him injuring himself, his actual field performance has been the real trouble spot so far.
If Helsley gets his act together and starts lying to batters like he used to, he'd be a damn fine trade piece for the Cardinals at the 2025 trade deadline. Closers always fetch a pretty penny at the deadline, and when Helsley's spit-polished, he's one of the top gunners in the league. If this regression persists throughout the season, it'll be a real gut-punch for the Cards. Here's hopin' his April blues are just a fleeting hiccup compared to his future brilliance!
Enrichment Data:
Larger Context:Ryan Helsley is a talented pitcher currently experiencing a slump in his performance this season. The decline in his trade value is due to his diminished stats, usage concerns, and contract status. Analysts believe his ERA of 3.60 remains within an acceptable range, offering hope for a rebound. However, lowered strikeout and walk rates, together with an increase in home run rate, show he's struggled since his 2024 breakout.
While some attribute his early-season struggles to small sample sizes, others question his performance and the possibility of a sustained downturn post-2024 success. His contract status, which projects him to earn $81-$100 million as a free agent, contributes to skepticism as acquiring teams may be reluctant to invest in a short-term rental.
[1] https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/helsry01.shtml[2] https://fansided.com/2025/04/15/ryan-helsley-st-louis-cardinals-struggles-come-pass/[3] https://www.mlb.com/stl/player/ryan-helsley-666896[4] https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/ryan-helsley-15864/[5] https://letterssports.com/cardinals/2025/03/19/ryan-helsley-st-louis-cardinals-contract-talks-receiver-market-value/
[1] The '25 slump of MLB's best reliever in 2024, Ryan Helsley, has raised questions about his trade value with the St. Louis Cardinals, who are projected to lose him as a free agent for $81-$100 million.
[2] Helsley's early struggles this season are evident in his below-par fastball and slightly above-average slider, which is a departure from his top-tier slider performance of last year.
[3] Despite concerns over his ERA rise to 3.60 (from 1.25 in 2022), experts remain hopeful that Helsley can recover his form before the 2025 trade deadline, as his raw stuff and potential value make him an attractive trade piece for contending teams.
[4] If the Cardinals decide to hold onto Helsley for the rest of the season, they may face the risk of a sustained downturn, potentially diminishing his value as a free agent in the MLB.
