Rising Trade Value: 3 Cardinals; Plummeted Season Start: 2 Cardinals
Rewritten Article:
From last fall's St. Louis Cardinals' end-of-season press conference, the expectation lingered that the club would be parting ways with several Major League veterans to pave the way for a fresh start. Yet here we are in May, and it hasn't happened.
Every gossiper's favorite tale by now, so I shan't bore you with the recycled narrative. Suffice it to say, players mooted for departure are still ensconced in St. Louis, and their only off-season free-agent acquisition came late in spring training in the form of Phil Maton.
As we edge into May with a 14-17 record, three games below .500, and a four-game deficit from the NL Central lead, expectations lean towards them being buyers this July, if not sellers. So, let's discuss five players who could be on the block at the deadline and assess whether their trade value has escalated or dwindled since the season commenced. I'll focus only on players who appear likely to be traded if they decide to deal, so I'll leave out budding stars like Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar, as well as veterans with no-trade clauses like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray who have voiced a desire to stay in St. Louis.
Three Cardinals Whose Trade Value has Increased, Two Whose Value has Decreased since the 2025 Season Began
The Rising Trade Value of Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals aggressively shopped third baseman Nolan Arenado during the offseason, even asking him about potential trades. Initially open to a move to selected teams, Arenado had second thoughts when a trade with the Houston Astros fell through after they traded Kyle Tucker and facing the prospect of letting Alex Bregman walk in free agency. The Boston Red Sox were serious about acquiring him, but they had already signed Bregman. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres were other clubs Arenado wished to join, but deals never materialized.
Following a sub-standard 2024 season and a bumpy end to his 2023 campaign, Arenado was not a coveted trade asset due to his hefty salary and lackluster offensive performance. Yes, he remains a hall-of-famer caliber talent and maintained stellar defense at the hot corner, but his downturn in offensive production—shifting from a true middle-of-the-order bat to league average with little pop—didn't sit well with teams considering his contract.
Despite regular rumors of a possible trade, the Cardinals continued to be open to discussing a deal for Arenado throughout the offseason. However, once it became clear that he'd begin the 2025 season with St. Louis, the best scenario for both parties was a resurgent performance from Arenado. And so far, it seems he's on track.
While he's still not his former self, Nolan Arenado has seen a surge in his OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, BB%, and ISO, putting him on pace for his highest fWAR since 2022 while striking out less than ever, only 6.8%. If this trend continues, Arenado will attract numerous suitors come July who would relish the chance to add his services to their roster. Granted, they won't garner a top prospect in return, but I genuinely believe that, if this trajectory persists, he will generate more value than he would have before.
Moreover, there appears to be a greater need from some of Arenado's preferred teams than there was during the offseason. Max Muncy has struggled for the Dodgers, third base is their biggest weakness in the Yankees' lineup, and the Padres could sure use a jolt to their offense.
I sense that the Cardinals will have a better chance of finalizing a deal with a team from Arenado's "wish list" come July, and may even expand his list to include contenders later in the summer. But for now, the critical factor is that Arenado looks better this season, which is crucial for building trade interest.
- Despite initially entertaining the idea of a trade during the offseason, Nolan Arenado's resurgence in 2025 has made him a more attractive trade asset for teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres.
- Prior to his improvement this season, Arenado's hefty salary and subpar offensive performance had dampened his trade value, making him less appealing to potential suitors.
- As of now, Arenado's increased on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+, walk percentage, and decreased strikeout percentage suggest he's on track for his highest preferenced wins above replacement (fWAR) since 2022.
- With Max Muncy struggling for the Dodgers, third base being a weakness in the Yankees' lineup, and the Padres in need of a boost to their offense, it seems Arenado could find a new team at the trade deadline this July.
