UK Local Elections 2025: A Test for the Political Landscape
Right-wing Reform UK party surpasses the ruling Labour Party in electoral victory
Get ready, UK! Local elections are upon us on May 1, marking the first major vote since Keir Starmer's Labour Party took over from the Conservatives in 2024. Intriguingly, these elections might not be a straightforward gauge of the new government's performance due to the typical Conservative stronghold of many councils. Instead, they may offer insights into how voters rate Kemi Badenoch, the new Conservative Party leader who assumed the post in November 2024.
RBC Group reveals that these elections aren't nationwide or voting for the parliaments of Scotland and Wales, which will take place the following year. Nevertheless, they serve as an essential barometer for understanding party preferences and the evolution of the Labour Party's positions compared to last year.
The Complex British Administrative Structure
The United Kingdom boasts one of the most intricate and multifaceted administrative structures globally. The local governance structure in the four regions of the kingdom breaks down as follows:
- England - 317 local authorities, composed of 21 county councils, 164 district councils, 62 unitary authorities, 32 boroughs of London, 36 metropolitan boroughs, two sui generis authorities (Corporation of London and the local government of the Isles of Scilly), and around 9,000 town and parish councils.
- Wales - 22 unitary authorities.
- Scotland - 32 unitary authorities.
- Northern Ireland - 11 unitary authorities.
Notably, different regions hold local elections at varying times. For instance, Wales and Scotland held their elections in 2022, while Northern Ireland's took place in 2023. England follows no uniform election cycle, with some councils elected for four years, others changed every two, and still others altered every year, with no elections in the fourth year.
In 2025, elections will solely take place in England, involving 23 out of 317 local authorities, such as 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, one metropolitan borough, and the Isles of Scilly's authority. Additionally, English voters will elect mayors in six areas and members of over 1,200 parish church councils. Over 1,600 seats are up for grabs.
Conservatives Brace for a Challenging Contest
Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledges the difficulties faced by his party in these elections. With most councils in Conservative strongholds, Starmer remarks, "Most governments after general elections face tough local elections, and of course, we've had to make some difficult but right decisions."
The Growing Influence of Reform UK
While Labour and the Conservatives grapple with waning support, the right-wing populist party Reform UK is making waves in the UK political arena. Founded in 2018 as the Brexit Party, Reform UK is focusing on combating illegal immigration and intends to create a Ministry of Deportations if they win the next general election.
Following the 2024 general election, Reform UK secured five seats out of 650 in the House of Commons. With a rating of 25%, according to Politico on April 22, 2025, Reform UK's rise could significantly alter voting patterns in the country, causing the Conservative Party to lose their dominant position.
The Dissatisfaction with the Government
A strong discontent with the government prevails, with only 16% approving of its work, while 65% disapprove, according to YouGov. The 2025 British local elections have the potential to consolidate this discontent and usher in a new era of politics in the UK.
The Impact of May's Local Elections
Oleg Ohochin, senior research fellow at the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that Reform UK's rating is indicative of the failure of the Labour government to tackle economic recession and reform public services. If Reform UK secures significant gains in these elections, it could become the second-largest party and political force in local government, edging closer to the Labour Party.
Political expert Vasilii Egorov predicts a further erosion of the two-party consensus in Britain after these local elections, with smaller parties, including Reform UK, set to improve their results at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives.
Reform UK: The Savvy Opponent
In an attempt to capitalize on anti-establishment sentiment, Reform UK is positioning itself as the "opposition to the Labour government" in these elections by contesting 23 local authorities and six mayoral elections. Aiming to translate high national polling into tangible gains, Reform UK anticipates making significant inroads in some regions, indicating a potential challenge to the traditional voter bases of both Labour and the Conservatives.
- Despite the elections taking place in May 2025 being limited to England, they serve as a crucial barometer for understanding party preferences and the evolution of the Labour Party's positions compared to the previous year.
- In these local elections, 23 out of 317 local authorities in England will be involved, including county councils, unitary authorities, a metropolitan borough, and the Isles of Scilly's authority.
- A political expert, Vasilii Egorov, predicts a further erosion of the two-party consensus in Britain after these local elections, with smaller parties, including Reform UK, set to improve their results at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives.
- With a rating of 25%, according to Politico on April 22, 2025, Reform UK's rise could significantly alter voting patterns in the country, causing the conservative party to lose their dominant position in local government.
