Right-wing AfD Party Levels with Union in ZDF Political Poll; SPD Stands at 15%
In the latest survey conducted, several political parties in Bavaria have seen changes in their polling numbers.
The Bavarian Social Union (BSW) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) each remain at 3%, a consistent position for both parties. Notably, the BSW is the only group with a significant discrepancy in expectations of violence compared to other parties.
While the majority of respondents believe that political actors will face more violence in the future, with 75% holding this view, BSW supporters are an exception. Only 47% of BSW supporters anticipate more violence, making the BSW the only group with less than a majority expecting more violence. In fact, the BSW has the lowest percentage of supporters expecting more violence, with less than half of its supporters holding this view.
The Greens lost a point and are now at 10%, while the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) lost one point, leaving them at around 27%. The Left party, on the other hand, can gain one point to reach 11%.
The party with the highest increase in the polls is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained 2 percentage points to reach 25% in the ZDF Politbarometer as of early September 2025. The AfD and the Union are tied at 26% in the same poll.
The AfD gained one point in the poll, and the BSW is the only group with a minority expecting more violence. Interestingly, no other group in the survey lacks a clear majority expecting more violence.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains at 15%, and a black-red coalition's chances of re-election are slim due to the SPD's 15% polling. The "others" category remains at 6%.
These polling results and expectations of violence serve as an important indicator of the political landscape in Bavaria as we move closer to the elections.
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