Rhine's Unpredicted Tides: Rising Woes and Lowering Hopes
The Rhine is currently grappling with unforeseen tides, thanks to repeated rainfall and warmer temperatures. Some parts of the Rhine have already reached their peak water levels, while others are still on the incline, posing a potential flood threat.
At the Maxau gauge on the Upper Rhine, the highest recorded level of 8.41 meters was seen on Thursday, marking a flood that typically occurs every five to ten years. Meanwhile, Mannheim is expected to hit its highest level of 7.40 meters on Friday afternoon. The flood peak in Mainz is expected to be reached on Saturday, followed by Koblenz on Saturday with an estimated level between 6.00 to 6.20 meters.
These water levels have resulted in flooded riverbanks, forcing authorities to warn residents in certain areas or erect flood protection walls. Riverbanks in Germersheim, for instance, were ordered to avoid entering dykes and flooded areas, while Ludwigshafen faced a flooded riverside promenade and parts of the Rheingalerie's lower bank.
The river traffic on the Rhine has not been unaffected. The Rhine is partially closed to shipping at Maxau and Speyer and requires ships to travel slower or preferably in the river's center. A closure for shipping traffic in Bingen is also possible early Saturday morning.
Flood experts predict a decrease in water levels on the Moselle starting from Friday, while the German Weather Service forecasts light rain or drizzle in certain areas on Friday. Once the fog dissipates, Saturday will be rain-free.
Insights
The expected water levels and flood risks on the Rhine and Moselle are highly dependent on various factors, from ongoing rain to the river's navigability and its historical data.
The Rhine's Current Situation: The Rhine water levels at the Kaub gauge suggest that by November 12, 2024, they are likely to reach 110cm, remaining above the 100cm mark. However, from November 10 onwards, forecasting Rhine water levels shows notable uncertainty, making accurate predictions difficult.
Flood Risks in Germany's River Basins: Flood risks are more prevalent in the Danube and Rhine basins, including their tributaries, such as the Main and Neckar. However, the risk of droughts is relatively low in these areas, making it important to stay vigilant and prepared for potential flooding.
Moselle River's Navigability: The Moselle River has been navigable by 300-ton barges since 1800 above Metz and since 1932 from Metz to Thionville. Post Thionville, navigability was not restored until the Moselle Canal was inaugurated in 1964, enabling 1,500-ton barges to sail the waterway.
Impact on River Cruises: High or low water levels have the potential to significantly disrupt river cruise itineraries, with high water levels causing ships to be unable to pass under bridges and low water levels leaving ships stranded.
