Revisiting Reforger: A Cold War Strategy Simulation for Pacific Conflict Deterrence
Make America's Muscle Memory Strong Again: Bring Back REFORGER-Style Exercises in the Indo-Pacific
From the shores of the Baltics to the heart of Taipei, it's high time for our allies to take notice and have faith in America's raw power and willingness to use it in the defense of democracy. Recent standoffs in Congress over funding for wars in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the long-running debate about America's resolve, have only added fuel to the fire. Let's look back at the Cold War and draw inspiration from the REFORGER exercises that helped alleviate allied concerns then.
In the late 1960s and lasting until 1993, thousands of US and NATO troops all but flooded into the German countryside, stationed in pre-positioned weapons depots in a mock defense of West Germany during the REFORGER (Return of Forces to Germany) exercises. These annual war games assessed and verified the capability of the US military and its NATO allies, training the operation plan for moving troops across the Atlantic, a swift process of reception, staging, onward movement, and integration with pre-positioned equipment, and deployment to the likely battlefields of West Germany.
The time is ripe for a refresher of these exercises—but this time in the Indo-Pacific. These new exercises would serve two crucial goals in the region:
- Test and improve the rapid deployment capabilities of the US military at a theater level.
- Deter aggression by showcasing our immense capabilities and steadfast commitment to the defense of Pacific allies.
Fast forward to 2022, and President Biden boldly declared that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, breaking from decades of strategic ambiguity. If a commitment to protect Taiwan is the new American policy, it's only fitting that the US military sets the physical conditions for this implementation. Alas, international worries remain about whether our commitments will hold water in a crisis. Taiwan is just one of many potential flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific region that demand our undivided attention.
During the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies had the luxury of millions of troops stationed behind the Iron Curtain. In the event of a conflict, America planned to swiftly deploy combat power to the continent to stem the tide of advancing Soviet armor. The REFORGER exercises enabled US military planners to test systems and familiarize troops with defensible terrain. On the highest echelons, these exercises sent a powerful message to the Soviet Union about America's resolve and unwavering commitment to defend West Germany. These exercises encompassed all branches of service, testing the joint capabilities of critical assets such as Air Mobility Command and Military Sealift Command. REFORGER 75 also included elements of the US Marine Corps's 36th Marine Amphibious Unit, marking the first operation on European soil since World War I.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the need for rapid deployment of corps and divisions to distant battlefields faded. Post-9/11 wars brought years of highly orchestrated deployments, but the muscle memory of large-scale rapid deployments weakened as schedules became predictable. Pacific Pathways has been an effective way to restore deployment muscle memory, promoting ally and partner interoperability while forcing planners and operations officers to troubleshoot long-distance sustainment issues in the area of responsibility of US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). However, even the largest of these exercises, like Talisman Sabre, involve a mere thirty-five thousand personnel from thirteen nations, far smaller than the total numbers involved in REFORGER. The scale of exercises has a direct impact on their deterrent effect against competitors like China or Russia.
While INDOPACOM has also executed joint Warfighter exercises and is planning to execute a joint military exercise in 20XX, codenamed Pacific Protector, it's time for a larger-scale exercise with allies and partners that resembles the powerful impact of REFORGER in the Indo-Pacific. This evolution of exercises should be carefully socialized with our allies and partners to build consensus on location, scope, and a rotational schedule. In this new era of strategic competition, testing our capability to rapidly surge forces in the Indo-Pacific can help the US military prepare for high-intensity, multidomain conflict.
Sources
- Ballard, Jeffrey M., and Abraham M. Denmark. “Revitalizing the Modern Posture of the U.S. Pacific Command: The Return of REFORGER?” War on the Rocks. June 25, 2018.
- Knorr, Nora Bensahel. “The Return of REFORGER.” Center for a New American Security. December 10, 2018.
- “U.S. Army Pacific History.” U.S. Army. September 19, 2021.
- “The Return of REFORGER.” Project on Managing the Atom.
- Sherman, Bryan W. “Reforger.” Military History Online. August 4, 2017.
- The proposed larger-scale exercises in the Indo-Pacific will test and enhance the rapid deployment capabilities of the US military, mirroring the operations during REFORGER in the Cold War.
- By emulating REFORGER exercises, the US military aims to deter potential aggression in the region and assert its immense capabilities, providing a clear message of its steadfast commitment to the defense of Indo-Pacific allies.
- Discussions should be held with allies and partners to build consensus on the location, scope, and a rotational schedule for these larger-scale exercises, as a means to counter strategic competitors like China and Russia.
- Analysis of current military exercises reveals a need for exercises on a larger scale, resembling the deterrent effect of REFORGER, to prepare the US military for high-intensity, multidomain conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.
