Return of Al-Qaeda's presence and its impact on American strategy
The United States has announced a new strategic focus, aiming to encourage rapprochement among regional powers and deepen engagement in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. This move is part of a broader effort to combat the global Islamist terrorist threat, particularly in regions of crucial importance to American interests.
The Islamist extremist threat remains active, most notably in Africa's Sahel region, which has become the second-most active theater of Islamist extremism. The U.S. is committed to protecting its homeland, building firebreaks, and tamping down threats before they escalate or risk regional stability.
In the face of this threat, a strategic partnership with India has emerged as essential for the U.S., ranking above any engagement with Pakistan. However, competing factions within Pakistan's security and military services maintain links to extremist groups that threaten India. These factions also aim to placate domestic extremists and act as a tool for influence in Afghanistan.
Currently, no specific states openly maintain close official ties to al-Qaeda. Yet, groups linked to al-Qaeda continue to operate in fragile states like Somalia and Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda affiliates have established influence. To counter this expanding threat, the U.S. may consider regional measures such as increased intelligence sharing, targeted counterterrorism operations, enhanced border security cooperation, and supporting regional governments. This strategy is particularly relevant in East Africa and South Asia regions near Afghanistan and Somalia.
The U.S. counterterrorism approach to global threats will be highly centralized, with the National Security Council taking a leading role. Meanwhile, China's influence in Pakistan is significant, finding Pakistan useful for distracting India and holding extremist elements at bay from threatening China. China props up the Pakistani economy and provides military support, creating little incentive for Islamabad to change its behaviour.
Despite this, al-Qaeda maintains an unbroken operating space from South and Central Asia across to the Middle East. The U.S. must navigate these complex geopolitical dynamics while working towards a more secure and stable world.
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