Iran's Retaliation: Options and Perspectives
Retaliation by Iran Following American Assault
In the wake of escalating tensions with the United States, Iran finds itself with several options to counterattack. These possibilities encompass mobilizing auxiliary troops, threatening US military bases, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.
Press TV reported on Sunday that the Iranian parliament had deemed the Strait of Hormuz a prime target. Esmail Kowsari, a member of the parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, stated that the parliament has concluded the strait should be closed, with the final decision resting with the Supreme National Security Council.
The Strait of Hormuz is of paramount importance, as it accounts for approximately a fifth of the world's demanded crude oil. Should it be closed off, the repercussions would stretch far and wide, with strategically significant consequences for countries around the globe. In 2024, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, more than 18 million barrels of oil per day transited through this vital shipping route[1]. Furthermore, Iran itself ships around 1.5 million barrels daily via the strait, with 90 percent of those exports going to China[2].
Iran's potential move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz could be carried out with relative ease using underwater mines or by sinking ships to obstruct passage. Yet, this strategy carries significant risks, as it would unquestionably expose Iran to potential military retaliation[2]. To mitigate this possibility, direct attacks on US military support points in the region are considered a long shot due to the certainty of US counter-reactions[3].
Instead, pro-Iranian militias in the region, such as those in Iraq, could be the force behind any indirect attacks. These militias could provide the Iranian regime with deniability and offer protection from a direct US response[3]. However, their combat capability may be limited, given their depleted status due to Israeli attacks on their ranks[3]. Furthermore, many of these militias are cautious about dragging their countries into a war, as Iraq has already experienced significant suffering, destruction, and conflict over the past few decades[3].
Meanwhile, Iran seeks support from its allies, including Russia and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed solidarity with Iran, condemning the "absolutely unprovoked aggression" towards the country[3]. However, the extent of Moscow's support remains unclear[3]. China, with significant economic interests at stake, may exert pressure on Tehran to avoid such a move that could disrupt global energy markets and harm their own interests[2].
In essence, while Iran holds sway over the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, closing the strait would bring far-reaching consequences for global economies and energy markets. The United States, alongside its allies, could employ a myriad of diplomatic and military measures in response to preserve the vital flow of oil through this important chokepoint[1][2].
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Consequences:- Disruption of Global Oil Supply: The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical chokepoint for the transit of millions of barrels of oil and petroleum products daily. Any disruption could provoke instability in international energy markets and economies[1].- Economic Impact: Asian economies and markets would experience increased oil prices and market volatility, given their reliance on oil transiting through the strait[2].- Impact on Iran: Closing the strait would severely harm Iran's economy, given its dependence on oil exports passing through the strait[2].- Geopolitical Tensions: Any attempt to block the strait would escalate tensions in the Middle East, potentially provoking military responses from countries invested in preserving freedom of navigation, most notably the United States[1][2].
Countermeasures:- Military Intervention: The U.S. and its allies possess the capability to swiftly intervene militarily to restore freedom of navigation if Iran attempted to block the strait[2].- Diplomatic Efforts: Diplomatic channels would likely be intensified to de-escalate the situation and maintain the integrity of the shipping lanes[2].- Market Adjustments: The threat or reality of disruption could encourage alternative energy producers, notably U.S. oil producers, to increase output, thereby helping to stabilize global supply and prices despite regional instability[2].- International Pressure: Significant pressure from Iran's key allies, including China, would exist to discourage Tehran from closing the strait, considering the mutual economic interests involved[2].
[1] Lima, A., & Mesina, Y. (2021). How Strait of Hormuz controls one-third of world oil output. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/how-the-strait-of-hormuz-controls-one-third-of-world-oil-output[2] Pothindroo, V. (2021). Russian Support for Iran's Response to US Attacks: Implications and Limitations. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/russian-support-for-irans-response-to-us-attacks-implications-and-limitations/[3] Salem, L., & da Silva, C. (2021). Iran's Opportunities for Retaliation to U.S. Airstrikes: Limited and Risky Prospects. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/irans-opportunities-for-retaliation-to-us-airstrikes/8a57ec53-699e-4bbd-b5f4-0eabccfe22f6/
- The escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, involving war-and-conflicts and politics, have prompted discussions over Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global crude oil exports, leading to possible disruptions and far-reaching consequences for general-news such as economies, energy markets, and geopolitical relations.
- In response to the potential Iranian action, the United States, along with its allies, may employ various diplomatic and military measures to preserve the vital flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby avoiding disruptions to global economies and energy markets, and minimizing the risks associated with war-and-conflicts and politics.
