Restructuring Armenia's International Relations Strategy
In the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts, Armenia has found itself in a precarious geopolitical position. The reliability of new deals, such as those with China, is questionable due to China's treatment of Ukraine since the all-out invasion. However, Armenia is actively seeking closer ties with neighbours and great powers in both the East and the West, aiming to reverse this isolation.
Recently, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a historic visit to Ankara, Turkey, in June 2022, marking a significant step towards mending relations with a longstanding adversary. Additionally, Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement with China on August 31, 2022, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Armenia has also expressed interest in officially becoming a member of the SCO, a Beijing-run grouping.
Armenia's strategic partnerships have not been limited to the East. Early this year, the country signed a strategic partnership agreement with the US. The nation has also revived its historic ties to France, with agreements including arms shipments. However, the ability of France and the EU to act as a balance for Armenia is questionable due to geographical remoteness and other pressing issues closer to home.
In an effort to diversify alliances amid the enduring conflict, Armenia has sought strategic partnerships mainly with Russia and Iran. Russia, as a security guarantor and arms supplier, and Iran, as an important regional neighbor offering economic and logistical cooperation, have been crucial in Armenia's foreign policy. Armenia has also aimed to strengthen ties within the Eurasian Economic Union and with Western countries.
Negotiations are underway with the European Union (EU) on expanded cooperation within the new EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda. The Kremlin recognizes a change in the relationship with Russia, where Russia's primacy is no longer guaranteed. Despite this, Russia remains highly influential in the regional balance of power for Armenia.
It is important to note that CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications. The author's identity has been withheld to protect them from retribution by authoritarian states.
The future of Armenia's claim on Nagorno-Karabakh is uncertain, even if the constitution is changed, considering Azerbaijan's post-war behavior and Turkey's longstanding ties to the Azeris. This uncertainty has driven Armenia to pursue a balanced foreign policy, engaging with various regional and global powers to ensure its security and sovereignty.
This article was published by CEPA's online journal, Europe's Edge. Armenia, in its quest for survival and stability, continues to navigate the complexities of foreign policy, balancing cooperation and competition in its pursuit of a secure future.
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