Reshaping Political Landscape Anticipated with Thaksin-Paetongtarn Cases
The future of the Shinawatra family's political legacy and the course of Thai politics are hanging in the balance as three significant legal cases unfold. These cases, involving former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, could potentially shift the balance of power, paving the way for new leadership to emerge.
The first case revolves around Thaksin Shinawatra, who was acquitted of lese majeste charges on August 22, 2025. These charges stemmed from an interview he gave to South Korean media over a decade ago, in which he was accused of defaming the Thai monarchy. The court's decision was unusual, with nearly 90-100% of lese majeste convictions in Thailand ending in guilty verdicts. The court's interpretation of the law, which found that it only applies to the four top members of the monarchy, was detailed and strict[2].
The acquittal may reflect political considerations, as the military and King Vajiralongkorn have recognised that despite Thaksin's divisive reputation and some errors by his daughter as prime minister, the Pheu Thai party he leads remains a key parliamentary ally[1].
Paetongtarn Shinawatra's case, concerning a voice recording between her and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, is scheduled for August 29, 2025, before the Constitutional Court. A group of 36 senators have alleged that she acted dishonestly and violated the code of ethics in her capacity as prime minister.
If Paetongtarn is cleared of wrongdoing, she will regain full authority as prime minister, bolstering her political position. However, if the court decides she violated ethical standards, the process to elect a new prime minister will immediately begin.
The Shinawatras have three legal cases under court review. The second case for Thaksin Shinawatra, scheduled for September 9, 2025, concerns allegations of fake illness and improper medical treatment while in detention. The court proceedings for Thaksin are being held behind closed doors.
Thaksin testified in court on July 16, 2025, and his legal team stated that no additional witnesses would be called. The verdict for Thaksin's case is set to be delivered on August 22, 2025, at 10.00am. Paetongtarn has requested an extension to submit her defence in the Constitutional Court case, with the new deadline set for August 4.
The handling of these legal cases could have significant implications for the political landscape of Thailand. Among the candidates to be considered for the position of prime minister if Paetongtarn is removed are Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party, Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai Party, and Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party.
The fake illness controversy remains a weak point for Thaksin, with significant opposition from conservative factions who oppose his attempts to escape justice under the guise of illness. The court will focus on whether Thaksin's treatment at the Police General Hospital followed legal protocols and whether his condition warranted such care.
These cases will undoubtedly shape the future of Thai politics and the Shinawatra family's political legacy. The outcomes could open the door for new leadership or strengthen the position of the Shinawatras within the political sphere. As the court proceedings continue, the nation awaits the verdicts with bated breath.
References:
[1] "Thaksin acquitted of lese majeste charges", The Nation, August 22, 2025.
[2] "Court explains Thaksin's lese majeste acquittal", Bangkok Post, August 23, 2025.
- The acquittal of Thaksin Shinawatra on lese majeste charges in 2025, despite nearly all such cases ending in guilty verdicts, suggests political considerations may have played a role.
- Paetongtarn Shinawatra's Constitutional Court case, relating to alleged ethical violations during her time as prime minister, could potentially lead to a new prime minister election if she is found guilty.
- Thaksin Shinawatra's upcoming case, involving allegations of fake illness and improper medical treatment while in detention, could further damage his political standing, particularly among conservative factions.
- The outcomes of these legal cases will significantly influence the political landscape of Thailand, potentially determining whether new leadership emerges or the Shinawatra family's political legacy is further solidified.
