Relations between China and Central Asia surge forward during Xi's visit.
READY TO DIVE INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL ASIA? HOLD ON TIGHT – THE RIDE'S ABOUT TO GET INTERESTING!
ASTANA – Get ready for some strategic action as Chinese President Xi Jinping touched down in Kazakhstan, ready to shake things up at the Central Asia-China summit. That's right, folks – we're talking about a new phase of game-changing engagement, spread across a broader Central Asian region. And let's be honest, the buzz around these evolving partnerships is louder than a Chinese firecracker factory!
Photo credit: Global Times /Akorda
This Central Asia-China gig ain't no ordinary dance – it's a flexible, pragmatic way for countries to work together. Think of it as a fresh take on traditional diplomacy, highlighting a new sense of agency and shared development goals in Central Asia.
Zhadyra Assetkyzy, senior expert at the Asian Studies Department of Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), weighed in on the matter, spilling the beans about this movement:
"This format empowers Central Asian countries to engage with China collectively, increasing their negotiating power and strategic visibility on the global stage."
Sticking It to Bilateralism
Enough with the two-step! It's time to switch from bilateralism to a regional strategy. You might remember Xi Jinping's 2013 visit to Astana, where he dropped the bomb on the Silk Road Economic Belt, the first fundamental pillar of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Well, Central Asia has been putting up quite the show ever since, taking a leading role in advancing this ambitious vision.
In 2023, the first China-Central Asia Summit, held in Xi'an, formalized things and set the stage for a regular ol' dialogue among regional heads of state. According to Gulnar Shaimergenova, founder and director of the China Studies Center:
"Central Asia-China cooperation earns a prime spot in the modern design of the region's international relations. It's a new model for political engagement, focusing on long-term partnerships, mutual trust, and pragmatic development."
Astanating Show
Astana has more than just a geographical connection to this format. It was right here in 2013 that the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative was announced, setting the foundation for the BRI. With its prime spot as a link between China and external directions, Kazakhstan helps set the tone for regional interactions and initiates new forms of cooperation.
Institutional developments such as the establishment of the Central Asia-China secretariat, visa-free regimes, and educational exchanges have helped foster stable growth in long-term cooperation. These mechanisms have bolstered logistics along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, turbocharged digital transformation, and ignited transboundary water governance.
"By working together, Central Asian states have amplified their negotiating power. Rather than tackling asymmetrical power relations individually, the Central Asia-China format allows for the articulation of common priorities in key areas such as connectivity, energy cooperation, and environmental resilience," Assetkyzy said.
The regional format elevates Central Asia's profile as an integrated subregion capable of engaging major powers on more even terms.
"As experts have noted, the format represents a model of 'coordination without binding commitments,' preserving national sovereignty while enabling flexible engagement," she added.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Trade between China and Kazakhstan is booming, with the country racking up $30.05 billion in bilateral trade in 2024. China remains Kazakhstan's second-largest trading partner in both exports and imports. Sc swing by exports increasing slightly to $14.89 billion in 2024, while imports declined modestly to $15.15 billion.
During the first four months of 2025, trade turnover between the two nations amounted to $8.57 billion, showing a slight decline compared to $8.93 billion in the same period in 2024. The story's the same with imports rising to $5.04 billion, up from $4.44 billion the previous year, while exports have dropped to $3.53 billion, compared to $4.49 billion in the first quarter of 2024.
Between January and April, China represented 15.5% of Kazakhstan's total exports and 27.4% of its imports, coming in second to Russia. The trade volume between China and Central Asia hit $95 billion in 2024, with nearly half of that amount involving Kazakhstan.
Infrastructure Priorities – Get Your Engine Running!
Assetkyzy stressed the importance of infrastructure projects like the TITR, China-Europe freight trains, and the China-Kyrgyz Republic-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway. These ain't just transport links – they're transformative economic platforms that catalyze industrial development, regional integration, and value-added production.
Thanks to its participation in the BRI, Kazakhstan has established itself as a key transit hub connecting Asia and Europe.Projects such as the Khorgos dry port, the Altynkol railway crossing, and the Western Europe-Western China highway have enhanced transit capacity and logistics flow.
"The CKU railway is reshaping intra-regional trade flows, offering alternative southern access routes and unlocking co-financing for infrastructure from Chinese financial institutions. This has accelerated supply chain diversification and improved trade resilience, especially in response to maritime disruptions," she said.
Kazakhstan's Commitment – Double Down!
Kazakh Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov signaled the country's unwavering economic commitment to developing long-term ties with Central Asia and China during the second Central Asia-China Industrial and Investment Cooperation Forum in Astana, where a whopping 58 commercial agreements worth $24 billion were signed.
"Our partnership portfolio with China includes 224 projects worth around $66.5 billion, creating approximately 50,000 jobs. The trade turnover between our countries has already reached $43.8 billion, and we have set an ambitious goal to increase it to $100 billion in the near future," Kuantyrov said.
Kazakhstan has tackled 62 joint projects with China worth $8.7 billion, with another 55 projects totaling $13.5 billion in the pipeline. The volume of cargo transported between the two countries rose by 13% in 2024, reaching 29.3 million tons.
Playing the Risk Game
But hold up, buckle up – experts caution that potential risks can't be ignored. Shaimergenova highlighted the possibility of long-term financial obligations arising from large-scale financing through Chinese mechanisms, particularly loans from state-owned banks. And let's not forget about the dangers of fiscal pressure or a reassessment of strategic asset management under unfavorable economic conditions.
The influx of Chinese imports can also weaken local manufacturing and deepen trade deficits. The extensive use of Chinese technology and equipment risks creating long-term technological dependence.
"Many projects are implemented using Chinese equipment and digital solutions, which, on the one hand, ensures rapid technological progress, but on the other, creates long-term dependence on foreign suppliers and reduces incentives to develop local research and engineering capabilities," Shaimergenova said.
Large infrastructure projects executed at breakneck speed can lead to environmental degradation, changes to the landscape, and discontent among local communities. Lack of transparency in public consultation only serves to heighten concerns.
Diversified Partnering – Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket!
To tackle these risks, Central Asian states are pursuing diversified partnerships with investors from Europe, the United States, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, and development banks and international organizations.
Transparency, rule of law, unified regulatory standards, and effective investor support mechanisms, such as one-stop-shop systems and public-private partnerships, make the region more attractive and reduce the risk of unequal agreements.
"Economic policy coordination within the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and other regional organizations is contributing to the formation of a common economic space and the development of shared standards for working with external investors," said Shaimergenova.
Safeguards like joint project management and local job creation mandates help maintain a balanced engagement approach. Shaimergenova views the Central Asia-China format as a "platform for strategic risk mitigation," especially amid global economic fragmentation.
"While the question of overdependence on any single partner raises concerns in global discussions, the nature of cooperation between Central Asia and China is not one of dependency but of strategic complementarity," Assetkyzy said.
"Rather than dependence, the relationship is structured around strategic complementarity and pragmatic alignment with long-term regional priorities – supporting resilience, industrial modernization, and proactive ownership of development trajectories. The risks, while acknowledged, are already integrated into policy design and mitigated accordingly," she said.
In conclusion, the Central Asia-China strategic partnership is forging ahead, aiming high-quality economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and comprehensive risk mitigation measures. The partnership is set to become more efficient, integrated, and deeply engaged, with a focus on smooth trade facilitation, industrial investment, connectivity improvements, green mining, agricultural modernization, and personnel exchanges.
- The Central Asia-China strategic partnership is not just about bilateral relationships; it's transitioning towards a regional strategy that empowers Central Asian countries collectively, enhancing their negotiating power and global visibility.
- The Central Asia-China format is not a dependency relationship but one of strategic complementarity, focusing on long-term regional priorities such as resilience, industrial modernization, and proactive ownership of development trajectories, with integrated risk mitigation measures.
