Surviving the Odds: Ukraine's Resilience in the Absence of US Aid
In the heart of Kyiv, conversations revolve around Ukraine's defensive war against Russia and the Western alliance
Rejoicing in the emergence of a fresh German Chancellor.
With tanks parading over Red Square, proclaiming victory against Nazism, experts gather in the city of Kyiv to deliberate on Ukraine's survival against the looming threat of Russia, with or without US assistance. The fractures in the Western alliance under US President Donald Trump, and the possibility of peace, lingers in the air. Yet, Ukraine stays steadfast, hopeful for a change in leadership.
Former President Petro Poroshenko, in the sidelines of the Kyiv Security Forum, expresses their dire situation. "We're fighting at the front, in an extremely challenging circumstance," he admits. "We lack not just manpower but technology, ammunition, and weapons, particularly air defense. Our hopes are now pinned on the new German Chancellor. I had a brief conversation with him, and I was greatly moved by his determination to strengthen Germany's leadership role in all of Europe."
The West's Wavering Support
Since President Trump took office, the Western alliance has shown signs of cracking. Ukraine, embroiled in a decade-long stand-off with Russian troops and a full-blown war since February 2022, refused to accept this state of affairs. This topic was central to the opening speech of the event, where experts from around the world, including Germany, gathered. Ukraine's former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk pleaded with the allies, "We did it 80 years ago, and we'll restore the world order again."
The Arsenal for Victory
Yatsenyuk drew a stark historical parallel. When "the free world" sought a deal with Hitler in 1938, it led to catastrophe. "Hitler launched a widespread invasion of Ukraine." Today, Putin operates by different rules than Trump, Yatsenyuk cautions China and the Global South, "Those claiming neutrality or portraying themselves as mediators must understand that you cannot remain neutral in this war—you must take sides, or you become an accomplice."
Trump's former Ukrainian envoy, Kurt Volker, shares his thoughts on peace efforts from the White House. "Putin will never accept peace," Volker asserts. "We need military deterrence." Trump's administration exerts pressure on Ukraine but applies little leverage on Russia, Volker explains. The pressure on Moscow must escalate to escalate towards a ceasefire. Trump fails to comprehend Putin's motivations, guided as he is by the desire for a good deal.
Politics "The ball now lies in Moscow" Merz sees a ceasefire in the near future as conceivableAs US aid dwindles, the question looms large—which weapons could turn the tide in the war? Drones are a critical factor, says Vyacheslav Shutenko, commander of a battalion for unmanned systems. "Unmanned systems are no longer auxiliary. They are decisive on the battlefield." According to Shutenko, Ukraine needs to enhance drone production and maintain a constant supply of drones to their military forces.
His sentiments resonate with another round of discussions on battlefield innovation—or rather, agreement on them: The future of military technology is shaped in Ukraine, driven by the "will to survive." Within a few months, even weeks, this occurs. Engineers and troops on the frontline collaborate to adapt technologies, ensuring the survival of soldiers. These advancements benefit allies like Germany, Britain, and Portugal.
Drones: The X-factor
Commander Shutenko, however, asserts that Ukraine cannot win the war with drones alone: Trained personnel for infantry and assault units are essential, but even more so is continuous international support. Diplomatically, through sanctions, with air forces and artillery. "We require all of this because we are fighting here in Ukraine against one of the most powerful armies in the world. If we triumph, we will cause such losses to the Russians that they will beg for negotiations and peace."
Negotiations thus far have progressed poorly. In an interview on the sidelines, Julia Kazdobina, the director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research in Krakow, Poland, explains the US's misguided efforts. "They try to create peace without considering the history and root causes of the conflict. Their approach treats both sides equally, ignoring Russia's status as the aggressor, and disregarding the fact that their aggression is intentional and premeditated." Attempts to appease Russia will not resolve the issue. "On the contrary, it harms Ukraine more than it helps."
Politics "Hold Putin accountable" Ukraine allies agree on a war crimes tribunalAccording to Kazdobina, other European countries are already at war. "We know that according to Russia's military doctrine, preemptive, hybrid methods for weakening the potential victim come first." This is followed by open confrontation on the battlefield. "Even if it appears peaceful and they are only exposed to hybrid attacks, they are already at war."
The ideal scenario calls for unwavering US aid. The resource agreement with the US, ratified by the Ukrainian parliament early Thursday morning, is viewed as a positive signal. It underscores the value of saying "no." Steven Pifer, US ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, advocates for continued US involvement. But, "It is crucial that Kyiv has an alternative plan."
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
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In the absence of US support, Ukraine would face numerous challenges in maintaining its military capabilities against Russia. The US has been a crucial provider of advanced military equipment and training, making their omission a significant blow to Ukraine's defense efforts[2][3]. Additionally, the reduction of international pressure on Russia could allow them to escalate their military actions without fear of diplomatic or economic repercussions[1][3]. Economically, the loss of US financial and investment support could severely impact Ukraine's recovery efforts, making it harder for the country to sustain its war effort and rebuild its economy[5].
To mitigate these challenges, Germany could play an essential role in offering economic support and diplomatic influence within the EU[3]. While Germany has not provided as much military aid as the US, its support is important for Ukraine's defense capabilities and could increase if the US reduces its involvement[3]. Continuous international support, including military aid from European countries, sanctions, and air support, would be crucial for Ukraine's survival in the face of Russian aggression[1][5].
- In the absence of US aid, Ukraine's defense against Russia's aggression heavily relies on the continuous support of its allies, particularly Germany.
- As the US administration exerts little pressure on Russia, former Ukrainian envoy Kurt Volker suggests escalating diplomatic and economic pressure on Moscow to achieve a ceasefire.
- Discussing the military technology shaping up in Ukraine, the authors highlight the crucial role of unmanned systems, with Commander Shutenko emphasizing the need for constant drone production to meet military requirements.
- Julia Kazdobina cautions against US attempts to create peace without considering the history and root causes of the conflict, arguing that appeasing Russia only harms Ukraine and sullies the US's attempts at diplomacy.
