Reduced Lightning Expected Amid Heavier Rainfall and Fewer Thunderstorms
In the heart of Europe, Germany has witnessed an unusual decrease in lightning activity this summer, according to data from the Aldis/Blids lightning detection system. As of August 8, a total of 563,000 lightning strikes have been recorded, marking a significant drop compared to the past 15 years.
Each lightning strike counted by Aldis/Blids is only recorded once, regardless of multiple discharges or flickers. The thunderstorm season in Germany typically lasts from May to August, and the data shows a decrease in lightning activity across these months. In May, there were 118,000 lightning discharges, a 45% decrease compared to the average of the past 15 years. June and July followed suit, with 212,000 and 182,000 lightning discharges, respectively, representing a 61% and 63% decrease compared to the averages.
The most lightning discharges recorded in a single day this year were on June 1, with a total of 43,000 strikes. However, the German Weather Service did not provide a specific number of lightning strikes recorded by Aldis/Blids for July, but the total for the first half of the month, from June 1 to July 31, was 394,000, the lowest value in at least 15 years.
Meteorologist Nikolas Zimmermann from the weather service UBIMET attributes the low number of lightning strikes to the lack of large-scale thunderstorm systems in Germany this summer. UBIMET also expects a new heat wave in the coming days.
While global and broader trends suggest an increase in lightning activity with climate warming, the current summer in Germany reflects fewer lightning strikes. The reason for this discrepancy is not explicitly detailed in the provided data but may be due to regional or seasonal anomalies in atmospheric conditions.
Research from Germany's Technical University of Munich highlights that lightning kills millions of trees annually worldwide and that climate models predict an increase in lightning frequency due to global warming. This suggests a general trend towards more lightning in a warming climate, which appears to contrast with fewer strikes in Germany this summer.
Despite fewer lightning strikes, Germany is experiencing an unprecedented wildfire year in 2025, with record amounts of forest burned, especially in the south and east regions. The significant wildfire activity may be influenced by other factors such as prolonged drought and heat waves driving wildfire risk independently of lightning frequency.
As the summer progresses, the number of lightning strikes is on track to beat the previous record of 813,000 from 2020. The need for further meteorological analysis or reports specific to this year's weather patterns in Germany remains to address the question of why fewer lightning strikes have been recorded this summer.
More weather-forecasting data is needed to predict the potential increase in lightning activity in the remaining weeks of the summer, given that global trends suggest an increase in lightning with climate warming. Despite the current fewer lightning strikes, the lack of large-scale thunderstorm systems might not guarantee a similar trend in the future, as shown by the expected new heat wave from UBIMET.
