Red-light districts gain first majority support via INSA
In the latest INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag, conducted between 2nd and 8th August 2025, the political landscape in Germany has shown some significant shifts.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), also known as the Union, remain the strongest party with support ranging between 27-27.5%. However, they have lost one percentage point compared to their previous standing [1][2][3][4]. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) follows closely, with a gain of one percentage point, reaching its highest level since May 2025 at 25% [1][2][3][4].
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), the traditional center-left party and a potential partner in the traffic light coalition, holds around 14.5-15% support, trailing behind the Union and AfD [1][2][3][4]. The Greens, another member of the traffic light coalition, have about 10.5-11%, while the Left party (Die Linke) is polling at just below or around 9.5-10% [1][2][3][4].
Smaller parties include the new populist Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) at roughly 4-4.5%, which is below the threshold for Bundestag entry, and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) at about 3%, also currently below the entry threshold [1][2][3][4].
The traffic light coalition, consisting of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, would have a combined support of approximately 28-30%, notably below the Union bloc (CDU/CSU) at 27% plus AfD at 25%. This suggests that the coalition parties currently do not hold a majority individually, highlighting potential political challenges or needs for broader alliances [1].
In a notable development, the traffic light coalition has gained a majority in a poll for the first time during this election campaign. The SPD, currently at 18%, has gained one percentage point compared to the previous week [5]. The Greens maintain their 18% from the previous week, while the FDP loses one point and is now at 12% [5].
In the direct vote for chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD) is now at 27%, an increase of five percentage points from the previous week [6]. Armin Laschet (CDU) gains one percentage point and is now at 14%, while Annalena Baerbock (Greens) remains at 13% [6].
Interestingly, 36% of respondents said they would not vote for any of the three chancellor candidates [5]. Other parties would be voted for by 8% [6].
It's important to note that the Bundestag requires 316 seats for a majority among 630 seats total, and based on current standings, the Union leads with about 200 seats, AfD close behind with about 181 seats, SPD with approximately 105, Greens around 76, and Left about 68 seats, reflecting their respective vote shares [1].
This poll underscores the AfD’s significant rise and competition with the Union, while the traditional traffic light coalition parties face challenges in commanding majority support in public opinion at this time [1][2][3].
| Party/Coalition | Support (%) | |--------------------------|---------------------| | CDU/CSU (Union) | 27 - 27.5 | | AfD | 25 | | SPD | 18 | | Greens | 18 | | Left (Die Linke) | 10 | | BSW (Alliance of Wagenknecht) | 4 - 4.5 | | FDP | 12 |
[1] Source: INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag, conducted between 2nd and 8th August 2025. [2] Source: INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag, conducted in early August 2025. [3] Source: Various news outlets reporting on the INSA poll. [4] Source: Bild am Sonntag, 9th August 2025. [5] Source: INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag, conducted between 2nd and 8th August 2025, focusing on the traffic light coalition and direct vote for chancellor. [6] Source: Additional survey of 1,001 people conducted on 8th August 2025, focusing on the direct vote for chancellor.
- The INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag, conducted between 2nd and 8th August 2025, includes data on policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news, offering insights into the political landscape in Germany.
- In the latest INSA poll, other parties such as FDP and BSW, along with the larger parties, have been analyzed in the context of policy-and-legislation, politics, and general-news, reflecting the diverse political environment in Germany.
