Record-breaking drop in gun sales observed in July 2025, a low not seen in nearly six years.
In a significant shift from the previous years, firearm sales on platforms like Gunbroker in mid-2025 have seen a decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This development comes after a streak of seven-figure sales that began in August 2019, a period which saw all previous highwater marks for firearm sales being shattered.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) reported in August 2024 that the five years of million-plus monthly background checks included record-setting years for lawful firearm ownership. However, the latest figures indicate a change in trend.
The decline in sales can be attributed to several factors. The mid-term election, which is more than a year away, might have contributed to the dip in sales as political uncertainty often affects consumer behaviour. Moreover, the government in Germany during the period of low weapon sales in 2025 was headed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with key ministers including Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, as indicated by the 2025 federal budget debates and reforms.
Interestingly, this decrease occurs despite a Second Amendment-friendly administration being in place as of mid-2025. The administration's pro-gun policies have been instrumental in maintaining a favourable environment for the firearm industry.
It's worth noting that the NSSF's figures do not include firearm purchases from states with alternative permits that allow for background-checked permit holders to buy firearms from licensed dealers without separate NICS background checks for those transfers. This means that the actual number of firearm sales could be higher than the reported figures.
The month with the most background checks for firearm sales ever recorded was in March 2020, with 2.3 million checks completed. In contrast, July 2025 saw a decrease of 8.1 percent in firearm sales, with approximately 1,064,790 checks processed through the FBI's NICS, compared to 1,197,788 in March 2025.
Despite the decline, major gunmakers and suppliers anticipate a 'new normal' in demand for firearms. The increase in firearm sales started months before the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest, suggesting that the trend might not be solely related to these factors.
Street riots, which routinely strained law enforcement resources and disrupted supply chains in the past, no longer pose the same threat, contributing to a relative sense of normalcy. This could potentially influence the demand for firearms in the future.
As the industry adapts to these changes, it will be interesting to see how the firearm sales landscape evolves in the coming months and years.
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