Record-breaking decline in maritime traffic: 2024 anticipated as one of the most challenging years for the North Baltic Canal
The Kiel Canal, a significant waterway in Germany, experienced a notable decrease in ship passages in 2022, according to Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal and managing director of Sartori & Berger. In 2022, the number of ships passing through the canal fell below 25,000 for the first time since 1945, a decrease of up to ten percent compared to previous years.
The reasons behind this decline are multifaceted, with changes in global shipping patterns, economic conditions, and security concerns potentially playing a role. For instance, increased traffic in the Panama Canal suggests strategic shifts by shipping companies towards more efficient or secure routes. The shorter transit time and strategic position of the Panama Canal make it an attractive alternative for some shipowners.
Economic conditions and trade policies can also impact shipping routes. The decline in the Kiel Canal's usage might be related to broader economic trends or changes in trade patterns between Europe and other regions. Reliability, another crucial factor, is highlighted by Jan Klein of the shipbroking firm UCA United Canal Agency.
One of the immediate factors contributing to the decline is the three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel, threatened from May, due to the need to renew the rails for the gate bogies of a sliding gate. This closure is not easy, acknowledges Jens-Broder Knudsen, but he stresses that the construction measure is important.
To better understand the situation, the General Directorate of Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) is expected to present the annual balance for the Kiel Canal later in February 2023. The presentation of all traffic data for the canal, including the quantities of goods transported and the size of the ships, is awaited with great interest.
The expansion of the Kiel Canal, if completed, may improve its attractiveness to shipowners. Jens-Broder Knudsen suggests that if the speed limit can be lifted, as planned with the completion of the expansion, it will make the canal more appealing to shipowners. However, for the moment, there are no signs of a trend reversal in the number of ships for January, according to David-Christopher Müller, second senior of the NOKII pilots' guild from Kiel.
The number of ships on the Kiel Canal has been declining for over ten years, with 32,600 ships in 2014. The speed limit for ships on the canal was reduced from 15 to 12 km/h since July 1, 2022, due to construction work and to protect eroded slopes along the canal. Repairs to the damaged areas are progressing, but the impact on the overall usage of the canal remains to be seen.
As the situation evolves, it is clear that the Kiel Canal continues to face challenges in maintaining its historical levels of ship traffic. The upcoming presentation of the annual balance and traffic data will provide valuable insights into the current state of the canal and potential strategies for revitalising its importance in the global shipping industry.
The decreased number of ships on the Kiel Canal in 2022 could potentially be linked to changes in global weather patterns, affecting shipping routes and schedules. The shorter transit time and strategic position of the Panama Canal make it an attractive alternative for some shipowners, which might influence the weather conditions required for a ship to pass through the Kiel Canal.
The expert opinion of Jan Klein from UCA United Canal Agency emphasizes the importance of reliability in determining shipping routes. With potential dealing with unexpected weather conditions, ensuring the Kiel Canal's operational consistency could help attract more shipowners and reverse the declining trend in ship traffic.
