A Fresh Look at Global Political Dynamics: A Conversation with Erjan Babakumarov
Rebuilding Relations: Yerjan Babakumarov Discusses Shift from Collaboration to Influence in US Foreign Policy with China, EU, and Russia
In this engaging series of interviews, we delve into the thoughts of political scientist and director of the independent analytical center "Nika Group," Erjan Babakumarov, as he discusses the transformation of the global order.
From CEO Mentality to Corporate USA
In the early sections, you'll find insights on how Donald Trump's CEO mindset has transformed the United States into a corporation, as well as the evolving landscape of diplomacy, moving away from alliances and norms towards deals and pressure.
Navigating Relationships: China, EU, and Russia
Now, it's time to explore the most pressing issue: how the Trump administration is forming relationships with key international players—China, the European Union, and Russia, and what reactions these countries have had.
China: Power and Strategy
—Erjan, what perspective does the US hold towards China under Trump? Is it a partner, a competitor, or a challenge?
For Trump, China is a strategic competitor that requires careful management. The aim is to rethink dependencies in areas like technology, logistics, and energy, with an emphasis on creating a more controlled global interaction scenario.
China's Response: Calculated Moves
—How has China responded to the current White House policy?
Beijing is playing a calculated game, focusing on creating stable alternative forms of cooperation, such as with the global South, Southeast Asia, and Eurasian states. This approach intends to reduce vulnerability and establish independent infrastructure, financially, digitally, and logistically.
Partnership of Flexibility: EU
—Why is the European Union increasingly finding itself on the periphery now?
The Trump administration primarily prioritizes bilateral relationships. The EU is viewed more as a complex negotiating mechanism than a strategic ally. The U.S. prefers dealing directly with EU countries in key areas like defense, technology, and energy resource exports, where collaboration can yield quick and tangible results.
European Countermeasures: Autonomy and Adaptation
—What are potential responses from the European Union?
Expect to see an increase in EU autonomy, with a focus on developing its own defense policy, industrial sovereignty, and strengthening ties with southern and eastern regions. Alternatively, each country may forge individual relationships with the U.S., China, Russia, and other global powers.
A Pragmatic Approach: Russia
—What is the likely approach of the Trump administration towards US-Russia relations?
Experts predict that the U.S. will seek limited, pragmatic cooperation in areas of mutual interest, like energy, strategic stability, and cybersecurity. Meanwhile, Russia will aim to smartly defend its national interests, potentially engaging in a tactical dance between China, the EU, Middle Eastern countries, and the Global South, while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S.
The Networked World: Global Adaptation
—Can countries coordinate to react to US actions?
Regional coordination and experience-sharing may strengthen among BRICS+, SCO, ASEAN, or energy and technology formats. The world is moving away from a binary model, entering a period of multiple decision-making centers, where everything depends on trajectory, impulse, and the strength of connections.
A World in Flux: Final Thoughts
The world order is experiencing significant changes under the Trump administration. As the US shakes up global politics, players must respond with flexibility, building connections and platforms based on national interests. Stay tuned for our concluding interview, where we discuss the possibilities of a new world order and the strategies that smaller states can employ to maintain stability and freedom of maneuver.
Enrichment Data
- Tariff Escalation and Reduction: During Trump's second administration, the U.S. significantly increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to impose a minimum 125% tariff on U.S. goods. However, both countries have since agreed to reduce these tariffs to 30% and 10% respectively for 90 days to facilitate further negotiations[2][3][5].
- Trade Negotiations: The U.S. and China have engaged in high-level talks to address trade disputes, with both sides expressing a desire to avoid economic decoupling. The negotiations aim to resolve long-standing issues such as non-tariff barriers and unfair trade practices[3][5].
- Domestic Politics and Policy: Trump's trade policies were supported by his base, particularly in regions like the Rust Belt, where manufacturing jobs have been a significant concern. The temporary tariff reduction is seen as a step toward addressing these issues[5].
- EU’s Position in Global Trade: The Trump administration's policies, particularly the tariffs on China, have led to a shift in global trade dynamics. The EU has been watching these developments closely, as they impact both EU-U.S. and EU-China relations.
- Stability and Consistency: China has been presenting itself as a stable partner compared to the U.S. under Trump, who has been criticized for his unpredictable policies. This has led to increased diplomatic efforts between China and the EU, with China seeking to strengthen its position in global trade by offering stability and consistency[4].
- Trust and Cooperation: The Trump administration's policies have strained relations between the U.S. and EU, particularly in areas like trade and security. This has created opportunities for China to foster stronger ties with the EU by offering economic stability and cooperation[4].
- Competition and Cooperation: The EU finds itself navigating a complex landscape of competition and cooperation with both the U.S. and China. While the U.S. remains a critical ally, the EU is also seeking to strengthen economic ties with China.
- Economic Partnerships: Russia has been strengthening its economic partnerships with China, particularly in sectors like energy and infrastructure. This is part of a broader strategy by Russia to diversify its economic dependencies away from the West.
- Geopolitical Alignment: Russia and China have been aligning their geopolitical interests, particularly in multilateral forums like the BRICS grouping. This alignment is partly a response to the U.S. and EU policies under the Trump administration.
- The interview with Erjan Babakumarov discusses the transformed global order under the Trump administration, revealing that the US views China as a strategic competitor, requiring careful management to rethink dependencies in various areas, such as technology, logistics, and energy.
- In response to the Trump administration's policy towards China, Beijing is adopting a calculated approach, focusing on creating stable alternative forms of cooperation with the global South, Southeast Asia, and Eurasian states to reduce vulnerability and establish independent infrastructure.
