Merz and His Gang Talk Trouce with Ukraine's Foe: Can Ceasefire Work Wonders?
Realizing Merz isn't Scholz in Ukraine's political sphere
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, accompanied by his bosom buddies from the UK, France, and Poland, touched down in Kyiv on the 10th of May this year. Their mission: to collar the Kremlin with a 30-day truce demand and solidify Ukraine's backbone amidst the raging Russian-Ukrainian war. Trump's behind-the-scenes peace push seems like it's going down the drain along with more sanctions.
Ukraine's expectations from Merz are sky-high, though saying they're emotionally charged might be an understatement. Merz's statements about Taurus cruise missiles, for instance, made the Ukrainian crowd go wild. But their past experiences with the West haven't always been sunshine and daisies, especially since the US's abrupt policy U-turn during Trump's second term and the anemic response to the 2014 Crimea annexation.
Yet, Merz's visit, fresh from his shaky start, is seen as a pretty significant sign from the Ukrainian perspective. This summit of the “Coalition of the Willing” with Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no petty playdate – it's a power move.
Trump's Peace Push Going Down the Drain?
The timing of Merz's visit couldn't be worse. Ever since Trump climbed up to the coveted White House seat, he's been hustling, albeit unsuccessfully, to broker a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war. While Kyiv's been game for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, Russia keeps pushing for stuff that's a big ol' hard no for Ukraine. Just yesterday, Kremlin mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov hinted that they're up for it, with plenty of "nuances" to consider, like the cessation of Western arms supplies to Ukraine and the stoppage of Ukraine's military mobilization. Those Ukraine questions: How, pray tell, are they meant to safeguard themselves if the Kremlin breaks the ceasefire?
Macron: USA on Ceasefire Monitoring Duty
The attempted ceasefire attempts at Easter and the so-called “Victory Day” on May 9 pretty much underlined just how tricky the situation is in practice. While the number of long-range air strikes on the Ukrainian hinterland lessened during both occasions, it didn't do much for the Ukrainians. Their towns have been getting shot at more than usual this week, and ground battles and air strikes on frontline areas continued without interruption. Especially during the "ceasefire" around May 9, there's a theory that it was tailor-made to guarantee the security of the annual military parade in Moscow. Now, the joint proposal of Ukraine, the “Coalition of the Willing”, and the USA is on the table for discussion: a complete, unconditional ceasefire from the 12th of May, monitored by the Americans. Merz's phone calls with Trump, both alone and from Kyiv, have touched upon this very topic. If Russia thumbs their nose at the offer, new sanctions loom on the horizon.
Merz Bets on Strategic Ambiguity
Russia's initial strategic advantage with Trump is wearing thin, thanks to the unity of Ukraine, the most important Western states, and Germany, who seem ready to face off against Russian aggression. But it's doubtful that Russia will simply nod their head in agreement without adding a “but” or two. There are still plenty of sanctions waiting to be unleashed on Moscow. Almost the only way to keep Russia from its conquest plans in Ukraine is to beef up military support for the country – preferably from the USA. And it's anybody's guess whether Trump will really follow through on that.
Sayonara, Taurus?
The debate about Taurus cruise missiles, driven by Merz, has its ups and downs. Ukraine needs Taurus to take a more effective crack at Russian military infrastructure on Russian territory. But the small number of Taurus missiles won't make a world of difference. Meanwhile, focusing on expanding artillery ammunition and armored technology production remains top priority.
Chemistry Counts: Merz & Zelenskyy Strike a Better Bond than Scholz
On a lighter note, the personal chemistry between Merz and Zelenskyy seems to be a marked improvement compared to Zelenskyy and Scholz. Merz assured his Ukrainian counterpart on his departure from the Kyiv Mariinsky Palace that he's always available to chat. Zelenskyy will likely pick up this offer more often than not.
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Volodymyr Zelensky
- Friedrich Merz
- Emmanuel Macron
- Keir Starmer
- Russia
- Donald Trump
- Keir Starmer, British Labour Party leader, expressed his concern about the ongoing war-and-conflicts in Ukraine and highlighted the European Union's commitment to a comprehensive and comprehensive policy on the environment, calling for its implementation to strengthen Ukraine's ability to face environmental challenges that could arise from the conflict.
- Despite Russia's skepticism and demands for "nuances" such as the cessation of Western arms supplies to Ukraine and the stoppage of Ukraine's military mobilization, Merz's visit to Ukraine has received support from Ukraine's perspective, as he discussed with Volodymyr Zelenskyy the joint proposal of Ukraine, the “Coalition of the Willing”, and the USA for a complete, unconditional ceasefire from the 12th of May, monitored by the Americans.
- In the midst of the general news about the war in Ukraine and the shaky peace talks, Macron suggested that the USA take on the role of ceasefire monitoring duty, hinting at a possible breakthrough in negotiations and the potential end to the conflict.
- As tensions between Ukraine and Russia continue to polarize international politics, the already icy relationship between the two nations seems poised to further cool due to the rhetorical tough talk and potential actions from leaders such as Merz and Zelenskyy, who have expressed their determination to defend Ukraine at all costs.
