Real Conflict Analysis | Mao Zedong's strategic perspectives may be overlooked, but it's Clausewitz's principles that potentially better reflect the true nature of the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Trade Wars, Peaceful Wars, and the Art of Warfare
There's a war going on between the US and China, but it's not the kind you might think. This economic conflict is more akin to a game of chess, involving strategic maneuvers and prolonged negotiations.
In the spirit of ancient war strategists, let's take a look at Mao Zedong's On Protracted War and Carl von Clausewitz's On War. These mathematical geniuses of warfare offer valuable insights into the ongoing US-China trade war.
Mao: Protracted Economic Conflict
Mao adapted Clausewitz's theories to fit asymmetric conflicts, such as the trade war between the US and China. He believed that weaker forces could triumph through protracted struggle, attrition, and eroding the opponent's political will.
Mao emphasized three stages: strategic defense, stalemate, and counteroffensive. China's defensive strategy, dubbed "dual circulation," embodies this idea, aiming to bolster domestic demand and reduce reliance on US markets.
Clausewitz: War as a Political Tool
Clausewitz saw war as an extension of political efforts, focusing on strategic endurance and the defensive advantages of terrain, timing, and morale. In the trade war, sustained resistance in the form of domestic production and reduced imports can counterbalance short-term offensive gains.
Clausewitz's concept of "calculus of delay" resonates with the prolonged negotiations and tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China. Neither side is willing to compromise on key interests, such as China's tech sovereignty and the US's industrial revival.
Fracturing the Enemy's Resolve
Both Mao and Clausewitz emphasized the importance of undermining the adversary's resolve. The US has imposed sanctions on Chinese tech companies like Huawei, while China's counter sanctions aim to fracture US domestic consensus on China policy.
An Artificial Conflict
While Clausewitz focused on state-centric policy control, Mao's framework included mass mobilization, a concept less applicable to modern trade wars. However, China's efforts to rally nationalist sentiment against US pressure echo Mao's psychological attrition tactics.
In essence, the US-China trade war reflects Clausewitz's instrument of policy executed through Mao's protracted conflict principles. Economic endurance and political cohesion will dictate the outcome of this war, which is more about negotiations by other means than a traditional fight.
- General news and politics are intertwined in the US-China trade war, a conflict that echoes the strategies of ancient war strategists like Mao Zedong and Carl von Clausewitz.
- Mao Zedong's On Protracted War offers insight into the US-China trade war, suggesting that weaker forces can triumph through protracted struggle, attrition, and eroding the opponent's political will.
- In the spirit of Mao's strategic defense, stalemate, and counteroffensive phases, China's defensive strategy, known as "dual circulation," aims to bolster domestic demand and reduce reliance on US markets.
- Clausewitz's On War emphasizes war as an extension of political efforts, and in the trade war, sustained resistance in the form of domestic production and reduced imports can counterbalance short-term offensive gains.
- Both parties in the US-China trade war are ready to risk war-and-conflicts-related consequences, as seen in the US's imposition of sanctions on Chinese tech companies and China's retaliatory sanctions aimed at fracturing US domestic consensus on China policy.
