Rapidly intensifying storm, Hurricane Erin, holds a significant place among the quickest hurricanes in Atlantic history.
In the heart of hurricane season, a powerful storm named Erin is making its way across the Atlantic Ocean. The Category 4 hurricane, currently churning north of the Caribbean, has undergone rapid intensification, reaching near 160 mph winds, and is forecast to return to Category 5 strength as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.
Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds on Friday to a Category 5 on Saturday, making it one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record. This rapid intensification is a trend strongly connected to global warming, primarily through rising sea surface temperatures, which provide more energy for storms to strengthen quickly.
The Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season, Erin is expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico and curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic. However, its powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides.
Tropical storm watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands due to Hurricane Erin. The US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized.
As Erin slides by, gusty wind and rain - which could be heavy at times - are impacting the islands. A flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday due to Hurricane Erin.
August is when the tropics usually come alive, with the busiest stretch of the season spanning from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year, and the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are providing plenty of fuel for storms like Erin to tap into. However, they aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024.
The increase in the frequency and proportion of intense hurricanes, including Category 5 storms, is a concerning trend. Since the 1990s, rapid intensification events—where hurricanes escalate from Category 1 to major hurricane strength (Category 3 or above) within 24 hours—have more than doubled. This rise in rapid intensification, coupled with a higher incidence of Category 5 storms, underscores the need for coastal communities to remain vigilant and prepared during hurricane season.
[1] NOAA. (2020). Global Warming and Hurricanes: Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved from https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/global-warming-and-hurricanes-frequently-asked-questions [2] EPA. (2020). Climate Change Indicators: Atlantic Hurricane Activity. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atlantic-hurricane-activity [3] National Hurricane Center. (2025). Hurricane Erin. Retrieved from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/erin.shtml [4] Kossin, J. P., Olander, T. L., Knapp, K. R., & Vecchi, G. A. (2018). Trends in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Nature, 561(7721), 687-690. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0502-y
[1] The unprecedented rapid intensification of Hurricane Erin, from a Category 1 to a potential Category 5, highlights the connection between climate-change and science, as rising sea surface temperatures supply storms like Erin with more energy to intensify quickly.
[2] With its expected powerful wind field leading to rough beach conditions, heavy rain, and the possibility of flash flooding or mudslides, Hurricane Erin's impact on the environment-science will be significant, demonstrating the need for advanced weather-forecasting and preparedness strategies during hurricane season.
