Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Hurricane Erin Among Fastest in History
Hurricane Erin, currently a Category 4 storm, is making its way through the Atlantic, causing concern for several islands in its path. The hurricane's hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center, with sustained winds near 150 mph.
The storm is forecast to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. However, before that, Hurricane Erin is expected to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, potentially returning to Category 5 strength. This rapid intensification is typical of Hurricane Erin, which became a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday, undergoing rapid changes in intensity.
Fluctuations in intensity are expected throughout the weekend, with some spots recording 2 to 4 inches of rain. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides, and a flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday. The outer bands of the storm will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Erin is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend, making a gradual turn toward the north. The US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized.
The storm's powerful wind field is predicted to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. August is when the tropics usually come alive, with the busiest stretch of the season typically spanning from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year.
Rapid hurricane intensification has shown a clear historical increase, especially in recent years, driven largely by global warming. Since at least the 1970s, there has been a notable rise in the frequency and speed at which Atlantic hurricanes intensify, with the most extreme cases of rapid intensification becoming more common.
For instance, from 1970 to 2020, the 99.5th percentile of Atlantic hurricane intensification rates within a 12-hour window rose from about 42 mph to 60 mph, indicating the most extreme intensification events are becoming significantly more intense. Experts caution that while rapid intensification has always occurred, the rate and frequency have increased substantially in correlation with warming oceans—a trend expected to continue if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic. The storm is tapping into the plenty of fuel in the region as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. As of Saturday evening, Hurricane Erin remains a formidable force to be reckoned with in the Atlantic.
The intensification of Hurricane Erin mirrors the increasing trend of rapid hurricane intensification, driven by global warming. As sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, the storm is tapping into an abundant fuel source, potentially returning to Category 5 strength.
Environmental scientists predict that Hurricane Erin's powerful wind field could at least double or triple in size next week, potentially affecting weather conditions on the East Coast and causing rough beach conditions.
