Racing Tips for Friday, 2nd May by Mike Somich: Churchill Downs Edition
💣 Frickin' Friday at Churchill Downs! 💣 It's the first Friday of May, and you know what that means – the gals are taking center stage in the Run for the Lilies! Get ready for a thrilling lineup at Churchill Downs with our picks for Friday, May 2, straight from the one and only Mike Somich. Time to pour yourself a mint julep and let's get started!
🏆 Kentucky Oaks (Race #11)
This year's Kentucky Oaks is headlining our Friday card, and there's no denying the stellar form of #11 Good Cheer. Six wins, never out of first gear, and three-for-three over Churchill dirt – this filly is a force to be reckoned with. However, she has yet to race this distance, and with her short price, naysayers may try to find a value pick.
Enter our dark horse, #10 Take Charge Milady. sustainable form, including a win against the morning line second choice, #14 Quietside, three back. If the pace is hot, she'll be lunging in the final stages and giving Good Cheer all she can handle.
But don't count out #9 Tenma either. Hailing from the west coast, she's Bob Baffert's best offering this year and has shown flashes of brilliance, even if her last race wasn't her best. The question is whether she can shake off the rust and recapture that early-2025 form.
Last but not least, #6 Ballerina d'Oro is hoping for a little rain to help her run her best race. She's bred for the slop, and her last win at the distance has few rivals scratching their heads.
Top 4 Picks: 11-9-6-10
The Bet: $10 Trifecta 11 / 6,9,10 / 6,9,10 - $2 Trifecta 6,9,10 / 11 / 6,9,10
🏆 Eight Belles Stakes (Race #9)
The undercard features a slew of graded stakes races, one of which is the 8Belles. Let's dive in and see who's catching our eye.
The betting public is likely to gravitate towards #12 Eclatant with her good form, but her draw to the outside may be too much to overcome. Instead, let's take a closer look at the value picks.
Our top choice is #10 Impulse Buy. She hasn't raced since a strong win here at Churchill last November, but trainer Rudy Brisset is notorious for producing winners off layoffs (16% win rate in graded stakes[3]). With the right price, this filly could give us a nice return on investment.
Lastly, with long odds of 20-1, #2 Evanescence may be worth a shot if the track comes up off. She won here at Churchill and loves the slop, so if the weather turns, she could be a dark horse to keep an eye on.
Top 4 Picks: 10-9-5-2
The Bet: $50 Win #10
🔔 Throw some spot bets on our radar: 🔔
- Race #6: $50 Win on #2 (our crazy price pick)
- Race #10: $50 Win on #4
- e Bet: $50 Win on #2 (another dark horse)
📊 Handicapping Insights 📊
🔹 Early-speed horses favored at Churchill Downs[4]: Be on the lookout for quick starters who can take control of the race and set the tempo.
🔹 Key prep races: Ashland Stakes (G1) or Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) are important races for contenders of the Kentucky Oaks.
🔹 Historical patterns: Winners of the Kentucky Oaks frequently emerged from post positions 1 or 4-9 in 14-horse fields[5].
🔹 Track bias: Churchill Downs' dirt surface favors early-speed horses, making front-runners and tactical stalkers strong contenders[4].
🔹 Race dynamics: Outside posts (8+) historically prove advantageous in the Eight Belles Stakes at this distance[4].
🔹 Dropping in class: Graded-stakes-placed runners returning to allowance company are worth considering for the Eight Belles Stakes.
🔹 Jockey angles: Rail-drawn horses ridden by Churchill-leading jockeys have solid win percentages in its races.
- Mike Somich has provided his top picks for the horse-racing event at Churchill Downs, with the Kentucky Oaks (Race #11) featuring the thoroughbred #11 Good Cheer as the headliner, and #10 Take Charge Milady as a dark horse contender.
- In the Eight Belles Stakes (Race #9), Mike Somich recommends #10 Impulse Buy as a value pick, and #2 Evanescence could be a dark horse to watch if the track comes up sloppy.
- For sports enthusiasts, it's essential to be aware of early-speed horses favored at Churchill Downs and the historical patterns of Kentucky Oaks-winning horses.
- On May 2, 2025, Mike Somich suggests placing bets on races #6, #10, and #11, with picks for a Trifecta in the Kentucky Oaks (Race #11) and Win bets for specific horses in other races.
