Races to Watch: Shawnee Stakes and Blame Stakes Picks Suggested by Mike Somich at Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs Racing Analysis: Shawnee and Blame Stakes Picks
As the Belmont Stakes looms next weekend, attention shifts to Churchill Downs where a pair of intriguing stakes races take center stage. In the Shawnee Stakes, race eight, and the Blame Stakes, race ten, contestants battle for glory and significant rewards.
The Shawnee Stakes
Unheralded favorites abound in this race, making for an inviting handicapping challenge. The morning-line favorite, #1 Where's My Ring, derives its status from a $35,000 allowance race with no notable following. Instead, our focus lies with #6 Alpine Princess, who boasts a solid 4-8 record over fast tracks. With her fourth place finish in her last start, the last two setbacks for #6 could be attributed to less favorable conditions. If the track invites fast running, #6 Alpine Princess is worth a wager.
Rain could present an opportunity for #2 Corningstone, who enjoys racing on off-tracks and is mounted by a jockey with a successful history on the horse. If wet conditions prevail, #2 is an intriguing proposition.
Soaring above the rest is the versatile #3 Royal Spa, adept at both leading and closing. If #3 can negotiate a favorable trip, she is a formidable threat and should not be underestimated.
Our picks for the Shawnee Stakes:1. #6 Alpine Princess (if the track is fast)2. #2 Corningstone (if the track is muddy/sloppy)
The Blame Stakes
Both Kentucky Derby winner #4 Mystik Dan and #8 Banishing are likely to draw significant betting interest, but their high odds don't align with their current form. Instead, eye #9 Post Time, who performed exceptionally well upon his return before shipping to Churchill Downs for a step up in class. With a favorable pace and a stout recent performance on his resume, #9 Post Time is a competitive choice.
Interestingly, #3 Antiquarian catches the eye as an attractive long-shot option, boasting high-profile connections and a solid return race. #6 Hall of Fame, who appears undervalued at 8-1 on the morning line, is another attractive choice with good form, distance affinity, and the ability to pounce on opponents.
Our pick for the Blame Stakes: #9 Post Time
Spot Bets
Race six offers an intriguing exacta opportunity with #6 and #4, while race eleven offers an intriguing play with #7 if the turf course is in play.
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Analysis of Enrichment DataInitial analysis of the 2025 Shawnee and Blame Stakes suggests a fascinating contest. However, further investigation and analysis are required to confirm the performances and positions of contenders #6 Alpine Princess and #2 Corningstone. It is noteworthy that #3 Royal Spa showed well as the upset winner in the 2025 Shawnee Stakes, relegating other key contenders like #7 Gin Gin and #4 Mystik Dan, the Kentucky Derby winner in the Blame Stakes, to lesser roles in those events.
In the Shawnee Stakes, if the track is fast, the race's odds favor #6 Alpine Princess, with her solid record on fast tracks and recent unlucky placement based on less favorable conditions. However, if the track is muddy or sloppy, an intriguing opportunity may arise for #2 Corningstone, who excels on off-tracks and has a jockey with a successful history on her.
In the Blame Stakes, while notable contenders like #4 Mystik Dan and #8 Banishing may draw significant betting interest, #9 Post Time, performing exceptionally in his return and stepping up in class, is a competitive choice due to a favorable pace and stout recent performance. An attractive long-shot option is #3 Antiquarian with high-profile connections, while #6 Hall of Fame, with good form, distance affinity, and the ability to pounce on opponents, also presents an interesting choice.
