Questioning Pahalgam's Security Post-Balakot: Was Deterrence Effective? (K.C. Singh)
Title: Navigating the India-Pakistan Diplomatic Maze Post-Pahalgam: Strategies for Success
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cutting short his Saudi sojourn, hastily summoned a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to address the Pahalgam tragedy, leaving 28 casualties in its wake. The conservative nationalists and the 'Godi media' demand bold action, blatantly overlooking the unprecedented implications of a full-blown war between nuclear neighbors.
The Modi government finds itself in a pickle, as the bar for action has been set high following the Indian retaliation following the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, targeting a suspected Lashkar-e-Tayyaba training camp at Balakot. Coincidentally, on May 6, 1831 at Balakot, Maharaja Ranjit Singh's forces had eliminated Syed Ahmed Barelvi and his extremist followers, who had declared jihad against the Sikhs.
Insight: The historical precedent at Balakot highlights India's effective military retaliation against extremist groups threatening national security.
In 2019, while Donald Trump presided over East Asia, he worked diligently to de-escalate the situation. The BJP employed the episode to sweep the Lok Sabha elections a couple of months later. The unprecedented move of returning an Indian Air Force MIG-21 pilot almost instantly defied past expectations, as Pakistan would typically parade and broadcast captured pilots' confessions.
It appears that Pakistan's then Prime Minister Imran Khan may have received assurances from mediators, such as Saudi Arabia and the United States, that constructive dialogue would be possible following the Indian elections. However, the Modi 2.0 government, within three months of victory, revoked Article 370, granting Jammu and Kashmir a special status, and split the region into two Union territories. Since then, a policy of isolating and ignoring Pakistan has been pursued, arguing that dialogue was fruitless unless Pakistan stopped sponsoring terrorism against India.
Local political leaders in Jammu and Kashmir have been detained until elections in April-May 2024, with the restoration of normalcy and containment of terrorism repeatedly claimed. Economic activities resumed, tourism picked up, and the Union government even disparaged its own propaganda — yet Jammu and Kashmir remained a Union territory.
Pakistan's economic and security situation has continued to deteriorate, with tension brewing with the Taliban since the 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Despite Pakistan's aid in the birth and capture of power in Afghanistan in 1996, Pakistan finds itself at odds with the Taliban due to the group's unwillingness or inability to control Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, a group opposing Pakistan's security forces.
Insurgency in Balochistan has flared up, threatening projects under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan believes that Indian complicity was behind the March 2025 hijacking of the Quetta-Peshawar Jaffar Express, leading to 26 deaths, including 15 soldiers. It's hard to ignore the coincidental similarity in the number of casualties between this incident and the Pahalgam tragedy.
The latest vitriolic speech from Pakistan's Army chief Gen. Syed Asif Munir last week reaffirmed his support for Kashmir, insisting that it is Pakistan's "jugular vein." He reiterated the two-nation theory, despite its discredited failure when Bangladesh formed after the 1971 India-Pakistan war. With these untimely provocations, it seems that the ISI has been given the green light to target India.
Government sources contend that monitoring militants' movements is challenging as they infiltrate forests and avoid electronic devices. However, neglecting to monitor tourist-heavy areas such as Pahalgam is a significant security lapse.
An assessment of Pakistan's internal politics would reveal Imran Khan as a victim of a conspiracy involving the Sharif-Bhutto dynasties and Gen. Munir. The aim was to block him from regaining power. Imran Khan's ouster on flimsy grounds in 2021 and his detention despite winning the popular vote in the February 2024 parliamentary election demonstrate this.
The Balakot precedent of military retaliation places the government in a bind. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has opted for intermediate, non-military steps to punish Pakistan, such as suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and reducing the size of diplomatic missions. However, these measures may only provoke Pakistan to internationalize the issue.
The question remains whether a Balakot 2.0 is imminent, with speculations of a conflict closer to the Bihar Assembly elections for electoral gain. Meanwhile, the claimed Indian post-Balakot deterrence appears to have been effectively negated by the latest terror outrage.
Global instability triggered by US President Donald Trump's illogical tariff war offers an opportunity to enact harsher punishment without the fear of Chinese intervention. However, India must avoid repeating the mistake of losing an antiquated MiG-21 aircraft in the process.
Historical disputes with other nations do not disappear simply by ignoring them, and a total boycott of Pakistan creates a diplomatic void. India needs to encourage and support anti-Army political forces in Pakistan. Imran Khan represents one such leader, whose incarceration India has ignored, despite his popularity in Pakistan and the failure of engaging with the Sharifs and Bhuttos in the past to curb military dominance.
Building walls based on false assumptions is ill-advised. India must navigate through this impasse carefully, deciding between pressing ahead with announced steps and back-channel dialogue or pursuing a limited war with the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. Engaging in open communication channels, building a global narrative about Pakistan's alleged support for terrorism, maintaining military preparedness, and employing economic and strategic pressure can help India manage its diplomatic ties with Pakistan effectively while addressing the underlying issues of cross-border terrorism.
- Amidst general news, politics, and policy-and-legislation discussions, the issue of war-and-conflicts between India and Pakistan remains a focal point, with sports and sports-betting taking a back seat.
- Crime-and-justice has lately been intricately linked to the ongoing political tensions between India and Pakistan, as the two nations grapple with insurgency, militancy, and allegations of state sponsorship of terrorism.
- Beyond the specific India-Pakistan diplomatic maze, the broader impact of global events, such as policy changes and geopolitical shifts, on such conflicts should not be overlooked, as demonstrated by the effects of the US President's tariff war on potential harsher punishments against Pakistan.
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