Q1/2025 ManpowerGroup Labour Market Barometer: A fragmented labour market scenario across industries and geographic areas in Germany
Frankfurt am Main (ots) -
Germany kicks off 2025 with a reasonably stable job market forecast for Q1, according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. While the transport, logistics & automotive sector takes a hit, energy and utilities, and communications services sectors show promising growth.
This relatively unchanged employment outlook sees a minor shift by two percentage points, now standing at 24% compared to the previous quarter. Despite global economic uncertainties, Germany's job market holds steady, with only a single percentage point decline compared to the same time last year. However, the survey's findings reflect the effects of global uncertainties, particularly affecting export-oriented and energy-intensive industries.
A deep dive into sectors presents a mixed picture. The communications services sector enjoys a 28 percentage point increase, now at 45%, compared to the previous quarter, and a 26% year-over-year growth. Energy and utilities also witness a 13% hike compared to the previous quarter due to lower oil prices that reduce import costs for Germany. Conversely, the transport, logistics & automotive industry struggles with a 13 percentage point decline in the economic outlook, with a NEO (Net Employment Outlook) now at 18%.
Regional differences are also significant. Berlin faces the most pressure with a 27 percentage point year-over-year decline and a drop of nine points compared to the last quarter of 2024. The Ruhr area similarly reports a decline of 11 percentage points. In contrast, Frankfurt and Munich help offset losses with stable employment prospects. Frankfurt boasts the strongest job market nationwide, with a NEO of 38%, marking a 23 percentage point increase compared to the previous quarter.
Historically, all regions significantly surpass the Q1/2015 levels, with consistently higher hiring intentions today, despite pandemic interruptions and seasonal fluctuations. Comparing the average NEO across all regions in 2015 (7%) to the forecast for Q1 2025 (24%), it's evident that the German job market has seen a notable improvement. Overall, 38% of German companies plan to hire employees, while 17% anticipate a reduction.
Large enterprises with more than 5,000 employees have witnessed a 5-percentage-point decrease in hiring expectations compared to the previous quarter, now standing at 14%. Only small businesses with 10 to 49 employees have worse prospects, with an unchanged NEO of 12%, but this category has lost 11 points on a year-to-year basis. Companies with 250 to 999 employees continue to offer the best job prospects, with an unchanged NEO of 31%.
Looking ahead to the next survey in March 2025, it will report on hiring expectations for Q2 2026. The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, now running for over 60 years, is a global indicator of future labor market trends, closely watched by economists, labor market experts, and financial analysts worldwide.
ManpowerGroup, one of Germany's largest staffing companies with around 11,000 employees, sets industry standards. Specializing in recruiting, developing, and managing skilled talent, ManpowerGroup supports businesses in their transformation in an ever-evolving world of work. In Germany, the company has been active since 1965 and is part of the American ManpowerGroup(TM).
- Some large companies in the communications services sector in Germany might be expanding their workforce, as the sector experiences a 28 percentage point increase in the employment outlook for Q1 2025.
- In contrast, the transport, logistics & automotive industry in Germany may see a continued decline, given the 13 percentage point drop in the economic outlook for the same period, causing concern for potential job losses.
