Putin's global standing for Russia is deeply personal to him. Un concealed ambitions revealed.
Trump's Chandu claims Putin's after more than a simple peace deal with Ukraine. Putin's not hiding his desire for Ukraine to lose its independence, and he's no fan of NATO expanding either. What he truly craves, though, is to flip the script of the world order and make Russia the leading power.
Putin and his cronies, ex-KGB agents, never forgot the bitter sting of the Soviet Union's fall. They ain't too pleased with the global landscape since then. Putin clawed his way to power during Russia's '90s chaos, when the economy tanked and had to be bailed out by the IMF and World Bank. But once he became president in 2000, rising oil prices turned sweet times for Russia and her folks. Russia earned a seat at the G7 table, renamed the G8 after joining. Still, it wasn't enough for Putin, experts say.
According to Kristine Berzina, a managing director at the German Marshal Fund of United States, Putin gave up his spot in the G8 because he had higher geopolitical aims. Russia was sent packing, slapped with sanctions, and cold-shouldered on the global stage due to aggression against Ukraine. No matter, Putin didn't see being the eight best buddies in the G7 as enough for ol' Mother Russia, a claims Berzina.
So what does Putin want from his talks with the US? To remember that Trump's policy shift towards Ukraine is not because of a change in Russian thinking but because of a change in American thinking under Trump. Trump is tryna end the war in Ukraine ASAP, even if it means more territory for Ukraine. This gives Putin little to lose by chatting, as the battlefield's been locked in a stalemate for years. While Russia is making small gains, they're certainly not dominating - unless the US stops supporting Ukraine.
Mark Galeotti, a leading Russia analyst, says Putin's been fooled into thinking this war would be a walk in the park. Three years later, he's gained control of 20% of Ukraine, but at a heavy cost. Even worse, Ukraine's losing faster. This situation presents Putin with opportunities to score quick wins while keeping his eyes on the long-term goals, says Galeotti.
Putin's aides have made it clear their long-term goals haven't changed. Even as they talk about peace, they continue to insist on eliminating the "root causes" of the Ukrainian conflict, like Ukraine's sovereignty and NATO's expansion over the past 30 years.
Putin started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine back in 2022 to force a regime change, hoping to set up a pro-Moscow government and keep Ukraine out of the EU and NATO. He hasn't achieved that goal on the battlefield, but Putin's plans haven't been scrapped. Instead, he might try to achieve his goals through other means.
Russia might mess with elections after a ceasefire, speculates Berzina. This is why Russia keeps questioning the legitimacy of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and calling for new elections. Trump and his VP, JD Vance, are against Ukraine joining NATO any time soon, and Putin's asked for a US commitment that Ukraine won't be welcomed into NATO as part of any ceasefire deal. But Ukraine's European allies aren't buying Putin's promises that he'd stop fighting if Ukraine became neutral.
"Many people in Europe now find Putin fundamentally untrustworthy," says Berzina. "The Europeans are very clear-eyed on the potential for future military engagement."
Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist, believes Putin's trying to score quick wins in this negotiation while keeping an eye on his long-term goals. Putin's spoken about his plan for Ukraine within a warped interpretation of history. Putin argues that Ukraine doesn't have the right to exist, as it's part of a "historical Russia."
Experts say Putin's drivel is nonsense, as Russia and Ukraine share a common ancestor but are not the same country. Furthermore, the Russian Orthodox Church's leader is one of the strongest backers of the war.
Putin's goal is to regain Russia's standing on the world stage with a bang, says Monica White, an associate professor in Russian and Slavonic Studies. He might be finding a buddy in Trump, who believes the big and powerful should get what they want.
Trump signs off on the idea that Ukraine's a bought-and-paid-for vassal state that should know its place, says analyst Mark Galeotti. The future of Ukraine, according to Galeotti, depends on whether the US will work out a deal with Russia and bring it back to Ukraine.
- Putin's ambitions extend beyond a simple ceasefire with Ukraine, as he aims to reposition Russia as a leading power in the modern world, a goal that has been influenced by the bitterness of the fall of the Soviet Union.
- While Putin may seem interested in a ceasefire agreement, his long-term goals remain unchanged, including the elimination of what he perceives as the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict, such as Ukraine's sovereignty and NATO's expansion.
- In the event of a ceasefire, Putin is reportedly seeking an American commitment that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, a move that aligns with his aim to keep Ukraine subjugated in Europe.
