With adrenaline pumping, Russian President Putin tested Europe's security and his political future like never before. He recognized the independence of the 'People's Republics' in Eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk - and ordered the entry of Russian "peacekeeping" troops. Putin's claims about atrocities were unproven, but state TV aired staged consultations with advisors pressing for recognition.
Putin's speech, teeming with biased history lessons, anti-NATO rhetoric, and conspiracy theories, was alarming. The Annexation of these territories would not mark the end of ambitions. Estimates suggest over 190,000 Russian troops were amassed at the Ukrainian border, with plans for Kiev's invasion and hitlists for dissidents and journalists. This could be a deliberate diversion to soften international criticism, promising harsher actions should aid not be forthcoming.
If Putin went ahead with annexation, it could be a substantial victory. Building on past triumphs in Crimea, he could establish a location in European territory, bypassing international scrutiny. This would also put pressure on unity in the west supporting Ukraine, raising doubts over projects like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Meanwhile, Putin's maneuvers in Belarus have established a stronger foothold, while diverting attention away from home. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny remains jailed, recovering from poisoning. Despite US sanctions against those involved, EU restrictions remain limited.
However, Putin appears far from satisfied. Even if the Donbass annexation is a short-term goal, it would not resolve the underlying strife with the west. In fact, Putin's relentless efforts to dismantle Ukraine's sovereignty and deter NATO expansion are unlikely to halt anytime soon. Russian tanks should not cease on the contact line.
While Putin's fury echoed in a Monday speech, smearing Ukraine as a potential nuclear threat and aggressor, critics accuse him of seeking to revive the Soviet Union. His critique of Bolsheviks, including Lenin, for creating an artificial Ukrainian republic puzzled many.
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- In two waves, Putin recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, ordering Russian "peacekeeping" troops to enter. The move was justified with baseless claims of genocide, yet state TV aired rehearsed consultations pushing for recognition.
- Putin delivered a chilling address, filled with Fallacious History lessons, Anti-NATO speeches, and paranoia-mongering. The end goal is annexation or at least partial control of these regions.
- Estimates indicate over 190,000 troops are stationed near the Ukrainian border, with contingency plans to invade Kiev. Adding to that are hitlists for dissidents and journalists to be targeted, which Russia denies.
- Should Putin proceed with the annexation, it could be seen as a triumph, allowing Putin to build on the Crimean victory and create a foothold in European territory. This would further destabilize Ukrainian unity to meant challenges to gas pipeline projects like Nord Stream 2.
- In terms of national security, Putin's actions aim to distract attention from human rights abuses in Russia, specifically targeting critical voices like Alexei Navalny. Critics accuse Putin of plotting to restore the Soviet Union, which his Monday speech seemingly confirmed.
Enrichment data:
Impact on International Relations:
- Escalation of Conflict: The recognition and annexation of Donbass territories have significantly escalated the conflict in Ukraine. Putin's actions aim to challenge Ukraine's sovereignty, sparking international condemnation.
- International condemnation and sanctions: U.N. General Assembly demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces, the International Court of Justice ordered Russia to suspend military operations, and the Council of Europe expelled Russia[1].
- Economic sanctions: Various countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia impacting their economy, trade, and infrastructure.[2]
- Humanitarian crisis: The war has resulted in a massive refugee crisis, making it the largest since the Yugoslav Wars. The U.N cites it as the fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II.[1]
- Shift in Global Security: By continuing his aggressive expansionist policies, Putin aims to defy the international order, reshaping the world according to Russia's interests.
Analysts' Predictions:
- Continued Aggression: Analysts warn Putin is likely to continue aggressive actions in Eastern Europe, if not met with adequate resistance from NATO or other international powers.
- Economic and Military Weakness: To check Putin's ambitions, analysts suggest undermining Russia's economy and military capabilities with increased sanctions and military aid to Ukrainian forces.
- Negotiation Tactics: Ukrainian President Zelensky is wary of Putin's tactics to divide the NATO alliance and isolate Ukraine through diplomatic maneuvers.
Sources:
[1] CNN. (n.d.). .
[2] New World Order. (2022, March 2). .
[3] CNN. (2022, February 26). .
