"Putin is trying to sit out the West"

"Analyzing the Consequences of a Russian Victory in Ukraine"

The West's weapon supply to Ukraine is enough to deter Russian advances, but not enough to secure a decisive victory. This ongoing conflict, according to Colonel Markus Reisner, raises concerns about potential Russian dominance and the erosion of the international legal system, as discussed in the ntv podcast, "Wieder was gelernt."

ntv.de asks: "Will the Russian army make a breakthrough in the coming weeks or months, capturing more territory?"

Markus Reisner responds that the chance of Russian army progress depends on Ukraine's defense capabilities and resources. Operations require a significant investment in money, time, and equipment. While the Ukrainians have achieved impressive victories initially and during offenses at Kharkiv and Kherson, these resources were depleted, resulting in a prolonged waiting period before further large-scale offensive operations.

Ukraine's struggle for resources and the West's strategic considerations in the global context could exacerbate the conflict, with Los Angeles Times reporting that the West is focused on deterrence and containment, rather than providing enough aid for a decisive Ukrainian victory.

Markus Reisner warns of potential consequences if Russia achieves victory: the international legal system, constructed following World War II, could become ineffective and lose its fundamental principles, including the prohibition of territory annexation and the use of force except under specific conditions. This could result in a destabilization of international borders and even a worldwide arms race, pitting nations against each other.

Notably, the UN Security Council, addressing the ongoing conflict, recognizes Russia's acts of aggression against Ukraine as a violation of international law, disregarding established sovereignty and territorial integrity norms. The actions of Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, undermine the peace and order established since World War II.

Russia's potential victory could generate a wave of similar conflicts, as authoritarian regimes feel empowered by the emerging "might makes right" ideology. This could result in economic instability, driven by barriers to trade and rising defense spending. Furthermore, accountability for war crimes may become difficult to achieve, as perpetrators can hide behind geopolitical complexities and challenges in prosecuting international crimes.

As the conflict continues, countries like the EU and the US are taking a cautious approach, balancing the need to support Ukraine against the risk of escalation and unintended consequences. This delicate balancing act, underpinned by the potential consequences of a Russian victory, will shape their future strategies and actions toward Ukraine and Russia.