Putin intends to keep Trump engaged, potentially at Ukraine's expense, according to John Foreman.
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, there is growing concern that a peace deal brokered by former President Trump may not lead to a balanced and durable resolution. John Foreman, an independent consultant on Russia, Ukraine, and international security, expressed deep skepticism about such a deal.
Foreman, who was previously the UK defence attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, questions the prospects of a meaningful peace deal between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. He raises concerns about the lack of clear peace terms in negotiations linked to Trump's attempts to broker peace, suggesting that Trump's eagerness to portray himself as a “peacemaker” may undermine substantive outcomes.
Foreman warns that in peace talks largely driven by Trump and Putin, European countries will be marginalized, and Ukraine will be forced to accept unfavorable terms while Putin and Trump will claim credit for peace, meaning Ukraine will end up paying the price.
Despite Trump's self-imposed deadline, Foreman doubts that Putin has been worried or changed his plans and behavior. He believes that without serious pressure from the Americans, Russia will not alter its course.
Trump is expected to claim success in brokering peace, but Foreman fears that the ground war could continue unabated. If such a truce includes hitting targets deep inside Ukraine, Russia might secure a respite from that and drop Ukraine off the news agenda.
Foreman believes that the Kremlin is stringing Washington along with hollow promises and temporary concessions. He also fears that Trump thinks he can "Hail Mary" this into peace, that he can turn up at a summit and sort it all out without proper preparation.
Steve Witkoff, who visited Moscow, did not significantly affect Trump's decision-making, according to Foreman. However, Foreman views Witkoff as a credulous figure who is being played by the Russians.
Ukraine finds itself in a difficult position due to its failure to make progress since 2023 and the waning support from its biggest backers. A face-to-face summit between Trump and Putin, possibly with Zelensky as well, is expected. However, the deadline for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict has been pushed back due to the hastily arranged, half-cooked summit.
The peace deal could potentially involve swapping land for truce, similar to what happened in 2008 in Georgia. However, Russia could use this truce to increase pressure on Ukraine by blaming them for violations.
In summary, Foreman views the ambitions of Trump and Putin to broker peace as potentially harmful, creating unclear peace terms that disadvantage Ukraine, with Europe marginalized. This casts doubt on the prospects for a genuinely balanced and durable peace deal.
[Image Source: https://chacr.org.uk/]
Politics surrounding war-and-conflicts between Ukraine and Russia are raising concerns about a potential peace deal brokered by former President Trump. John Foreman, an expert on Russia, Ukraine, and international security, argues that policy-and-legislation negotiations linked to Trump's attempts to broker peace might lead to unfavorable terms for Ukraine, as European countries may be marginalized and general-news about the ongoing conflict may decrease.
