Prospects of JD Vance Defeating Gavin Newsom, AOC, and Pete Buttigieg in the Election of 2028
In the rapidly approaching 2028 U.S. Presidential election, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the front-runner, according to the latest betting odds. As of early August 2025, Vance is the odds-on favourite for both the Republican nomination and the presidency overall [1][2][5].
Vance's odds stand at approximately +225, translating to a 24% implied probability according to recent betting market data. This strong position is a result of his growing popularity among Republicans and his lead in various polls [1].
Other notable contenders for the Republican nomination include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who currently has a 13% chance, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, with a 5% chance [1].
Across the aisle, three leading Democratic candidates follow: California Governor Gavin Newsom has a 15% chance, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a 9% chance, and Pete Buttigieg has an 8% chance of becoming the next president [1].
California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are potential Democratic opponents for Vance in the 2028 presidential race [3]. In a recent AtlasIntel poll, Buttigieg leads with 27% support, Ocasio-Cortez follows closely with 19%, and Newsom earns 16% [2]. Harris received 14% support in this poll [2].
An Emerson College poll shows Vance with an early lead over leading Democratic candidates, leading Buttigieg by one point (44% to 43%), Newsom by three points (45% to 42%), and Ocasio-Cortez by three points (44% to 41%) [3].
In the McLaughlin poll, Vance received 31% support, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 19%, DeSantis at 8%, and Rubio at 4% [4]. In the same poll, Kamala Harris received 25% support, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez each received 9%, and Buttigieg received 8% [4].
For the Republican nomination, Vance is favored at about -120, making him the second choice at roughly 5-1 [1]. Marco Rubio is seen as the second choice for the nomination, with a 7% chance of winning the presidency [1].
It's worth noting that these odds originate mainly from platforms such as BetOnline and offshore sportsbooks, reflecting both public sentiment and market reactions to political developments [6]. As of now, no current consolidated odds for the overall winning party (Democrat vs Republican) were found [4].
Kamala Harris, a polling frontrunner for the Democratic nomination if she decides to run in the 2028 presidential election, has seen her odds rise and fall. After her announcement, Harris' chances of winning rose to 3.7%, but they dropped back down to 3.3% by Friday morning [1]. Harris' odds slightly increased in the U.K. based bookmaker William Hill's market to 3.8% from 2% [1].
Traders have already bet nearly $4 million on various candidates in the 2028 presidential race on Polymarket, the betting market that started offering odds for the 2028 presidential race in July [1].
Interestingly, Harris' odds are roughly on par with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Donald Trump (who is Constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term), and Elon Musk (who cannot run for president because he was not born in the United States) [1].
As the election approaches and political dynamics shift, these odds could evolve significantly. Keep an eye on the latest developments in the 2028 U.S. Presidential race!
References: [1] https://www.betonline.ag/prop-betting/us-presidential-election [2] https://www.atlasintel.com/polling/national-polls/atlasintel-national-poll-august-2025 [3] https://www.emersonpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Emerson-College-Polling-Society-National-Presidential-Poll-July-2025.pdf [4] https://www.mc-laughlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/McLaughlin-August-2025-Presidential-Poll.pdf [5] https://www.williamhill.com/betting/en-us/politics/us-presidential-election-2028 [6] https://www.polymarket.com/trade/US_President_2028
- The 2028 U.S. Presidential election is rapidly approaching, with Vice President JD Vance as the current odds-on favorite, as shown by sports betting markets and various polls.
- Other significant contenders for the Republican nomination include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who have a 13% and 5% chance, respectively.
- Across the aisle, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Pete Buttigieg are the leading Democratic candidates, with a 15%, 9%, and 8% chance, respectively.
- In a recent poll, Buttigieg leads among Democratic candidates, followed closely by Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom, while Vance has an early lead over these candidates in another poll.
- Sports betting markets, such as BetOnline and offshore sportsbooks, reflect both public sentiment and market reactions to political developments, making these odds a valuable source of insight into the election.6.Traders have already bet nearly $4 million on various candidates in the 2028 presidential race on Polymarket, with Harris' odds being roughly on par with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Donald Trump, and Elon Musk.
