Prospects of Canada's Federal Election: An Analysis of Possible Results
Taking to the Polls in Ottawa: Canadians are gearing up for today's election, with polls pointing towards a victory for Prime Minister Mark Carney's ruling Liberals over the official opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre. The 343-seat House of Commons is on the line, and a party falling short of the 172 seats necessary for a majority will face the challenge of creating a minority government, which are often less stable and typically don't last more than two years.
Let's dive into the potential outcomes and what they could mean for our dear nation:
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AND CONSEQUENCES
LIBERAL MAJORTITY GOVERNMENT
In a ideal scenario, Carney would maintain control and continue governing without interruption. He'd assemble a new cabinet, work on a budget, and lay out his plans for the upcoming parliamentary session before the House returns on May 26.
LIBERAL MINORITY GOVERNMENT
If Carney falls short of the 172 majority seats but manages to govern, he'll have to either strike deals with opposition legislators for support or take the gamble and go it alone, daring other parties to bring down his government. A minority government must show it has the confidence of the House, with the first major test coming during the Speech from the Throne, read out by the Governor General, Canada's head of state. Opposition parties would have the opportunity to bring down the government when it presents its budget.
If the Liberals come up just a few seats short of a majority, they may continue to govern as though they had one, as other parties might not be eager to oust them so soon after the election. However, if they trail by 20 or more seats, they will need help.
Their natural partner in this scenario is the left-leaning New Democratic Party, who could help keep Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, in power in exchange for increased spending on social programs. The NDP also held the balance of power after the 1972 election, when Pierre Trudeau (Justin's father) saw his majority government reduced to a minority. Formal coalition governments in Canada are rare, outside of extraordinary circumstances like wartime.
In the event the NDP is unable or unwilling to support Carney, he could approach the Bloc Quebecois, advocating for independence for the predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec. Such a deal would be done on a vote-by-vote basis, as forming a partnership with a party aiming to break up Canada is highly controversial for much of the country.
CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
If Poilievre emerges victorious, a transition period of around 10 days would ensue, after which he and his cabinet would be sworn in by the governor general. His team would then begin working on a budget and a Speech from the Throne.
STRONG CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT
This scenario would be more complex, as the Conservatives lack natural allies in the House. Key factors would include the number of seats Poilievre manages to secure and Carney's response. If the Liberals are well behind, Carney might resign, allowing Poilievre's Conservatives a chance to govern.
Poilievre could then try to govern as though he had a majority, although the Speech from the Throne does not have to be presented immediately. However, the Conservative leader would be under pressure to reveal his plans soon, given the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian imports.
WEAK CONSERVATIVE MINORITY GOVERNMENT
If the Conservatives secure more seats than the Liberals but fall significantly short of a majority, Carney could still resign, giving Poilievre the opportunity to govern.
The risk for Poilievre in this situation is that the Liberals and other parties could unite to bring him down quickly. The defeat of a government would usually trigger a new election, but if Poilievre were brought down soon after the election, the governor general might invite Carney to form a government once more, infuriating Conservative supporters, particularly those in Western Canada.
HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE CONSERVATIVES
In this complicated and potentially destabilizing scenario, traditionally the party with the most seats should be given the first chance to govern. However, the party that demonstrates it has the confidence of the House takes office.
If Poilievre wins a small margin more than the Liberals and Carney feels he can create a stable arrangement with the New Democrats, the prime minister may remain in office until an opportunity arises to test the House's confidence. This move would upset Conservative supporters, particularly in Western Canada, where there has been longstanding mistrust of federal governments and weak support for the Liberals since the late 1970s.
A historical precedent for this could be found in late 2008, six weeks after an election that gave Stephen Harper's Conservatives a strong minority government. The Liberals, Bloc Québécois, and New Democrats announced a deal to bring down the Conservative government and form a coalition. This three-party agreement soon faltered due to unhappiness with the Bloc's role in running the country, forcing Harper to ask the Governor General to suspend Parliament for six weeks so tempers could cool.
(Note: while written in 2023, this article represents a hypothetical election scenario and does not necessarily reflect the current political climate.)
- If the Liberals fail to secure a majority, they might need to form alliances with other parties, such as the New Democratic Party or the Bloc Quebecois, for support in policy-and-legislation matters, a scenario that could cause general-news headlines.
- In the event of an unfavorable election result, the Quebecois party, Bloc Quebecois, might find themselves in a position to negotiate deals with the ruling party, potentially leading to debates around Quebec's independence that would fall under the umbrella of politics.
- The Speech from the Throne is a crucial test for a minority government, determining whether it retains the confidence of the House. This aspect of parliamentary procedure is essential in maintaining the stability of the government.
- In the instance of a hung parliament with a slight edge towards the Conservatives, the party with the most seats would traditionally be given the first chance to govern, setting up another round of politics and policy-and-legislation debates.
