Prospect of Trump's Strategic Divide Between Russia and China: Likelihood of Success?
In a world of shifting alliances and economic tensions, several key players are making moves that could reshape the global landscape.
Firstly, China's rapid advancement in military technology and naval expansion in the Western Pacific is expected to outpace that of the United States. This development, coupled with China's growing economic might, has led to a relationship nearly as strong with the U.S. as that with Europe.
Meanwhile, President Putin's goals include persuading the White House to rescind sanctions against Russia and attracting American investment to bolster its economy. However, the road to negotiations will not be easy. Russia will still need China as a market for fossil fuels, while China will continue exporting cars and machinery to Russia. American capital is unlikely to flow into Russia as President Putin would prefer.
The U.S. administration's approach to China in the first round of the tariff war has been less confrontational than in previous years. This is evident in the tariff negotiations that took place during President Xi's recent visit to Moscow, aimed at strengthening ties with his Russian counterpart and demonstrating that efforts to align Russia against China had not succeeded.
In the economic sphere, China holds certain advantages, such as its technology and capacity for processing rare earths, most of which currently come from China. About 80 percent of U.S. military weapons and equipment cannot be produced without these processed rare earths, making China's hold on them a significant factor in trade negotiations.
Beijing secured nearly all its initial core demands in the U.S.-China trade talks, a testament to China's growing influence on the global stage. This influence is further bolstered by the support of members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus, and several Central Asian countries. These nations share an interest in creating a multipolar world order as a counterbalance to Western powers.
In the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the war is likely to continue as Europe supports Ukraine to slow Russia's advances and isolate its economy. However, in a less likely scenario, the Russian appetite to wage a costly war might weaken, potentially pushing the Russian leadership to prioritize a ceasefire and seek a temporary end to the conflict.
President Putin aims to achieve a so-called victory in the Ukraine war while simultaneously seeking to restore relations with the U.S. This dual objective, if successful, could potentially lead to some sanctions against Russia being lifted.
In conclusion, the global power dynamics are undergoing significant changes. Despite the U.S.'s attempts to mend ties with Moscow, China and Russia are likely to remain partners, supported by the SCO and other nations seeking a multipolar world order. China's economic and technological advantages, particularly in the area of rare earths, give it a significant edge in trade negotiations with the U.S. and beyond. The conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere will continue to shape and be shaped by these power struggles, making for a complex and ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
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