Shrinking Net Migration to Germany in 2024: A Closer Look
Germany's inbound immigration in 2024 shows a steady decrease - Projected Decrease in Net Immigration to Germany in 2024
Over a year since 2023, Germany saw a significant drop in net migration with 1.69 million newcomers and 1.26 million departures. The number of immigrants plummeted by 12% as compared to the previous year, while the number of emigrants remained relatively stable.
One of the major reasons contributing to this decline was the decrease in immigration from the primary countries of asylum seekers. For instance, the number of arrivals from Syria dropped a staggering 25%. There was also a substantial decline from Turkey and Afghanistan, with reductions of 53% and 32% respectively.
Surprisingly, net migration from Ukraine remained constant at 121,000 individuals. However, in the initial four months of 2025, this figure dropped to merely 20,000 compared to the almost double number during the same period in 2024.
Another striking factor was the decrease in immigration from EU countries. For the first time since 2008, more individuals left Germany for other EU nations than those who entered. The drop in immigrants was particularly noteworthy from Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania, experiencing decreases of 21%, 18%, and 8% respectively.
In 2024, approximately one million cross-border migrations occurred within Germany. Brandenburg experienced a positive shift by welcoming 12,000 more individuals. Bavaria and Schleswig-Holstein followed suit, while the highest migration losses were recorded in Berlin with a decrease of 15,000 people, followed by Thuringia, Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia.
Migration Trend Insights
Net migration trends in Germany for the years 2024-2025 are driven by a multitude of factors, including economic conditions, migration origins, and impacts on both the European Union (EU) and domestic migration patterns.
Economic Factors:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts a global GDP growth slowdown from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, potentially impacting migration as economic opportunities dwindle [2].
- Germany’s own economic survey reveals challenges in maintaining high growth rates, perhaps reducing Germany's appeal as a migration destination [1].
Housing Shortage and Construction Gap:
- A shortage of housing, driven by population growth due to net migration, has become more pronounced, especially in major urban areas [5].
- The Federal Institute for Research on Building estimates a need for about 320,000 new dwellings annually until 2030 but construction output is far from this target, intensifying housing supply constraints that could deter immigration [5].
Countries of Origin and Impact on EU:
While precise 2024-2025 data on migrants' countries of origin is not provided, Germany’s migration landscape traditionally encompasses EU member states, especially Eastern European nations, along with non-EU countries facing crises or economic hardship [3].
- EU Labor Market Flows: Germany's role as a major EU employer influences labor market transitions, with many unemployed individuals finding work within the EU [4].
- Internal Migration within Germany: Population growth distribution is uneven, with cities like Munich, Hamburg, and Berlin continuing to expand, while medium-sized cities experience slight declines [5]. This urban concentration intensifies local demand for housing and services.
- EU-wide Migration Dynamics: Germany’s migration trends impact broader EU migration patterns because of its pull effect. Stabilization or moderation in Germany's net migration can affect secondary migration, impacting both neighboring countries and other EU members concerning labor supply and demographic shifts [4].
In brief, Germany's net migration in 2024-2025 is influenced by economic factors, housing supply constraints causing some moderation in inflows, and primarily from EU and select non-EU countries. These trends affect urban growth and labor market dynamics, both domestically and within the EU migration framework [1][2][4][5].
- Net migration
- Germany
- Wiesbaden
- Federal Statistical Office
- Ukraine
- EU
- Syria
- Turkey
- Afghanistan
[1] German Economic Institute (IW), “German Economic Survey,” 2024.[2] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), “Global Economy Outlook,” 2024.[3] European Commission, “Migration and Home Affairs,” 2025.[4] Eurostat, “Labor Market Statistics,” 2024.[5] Federal Institute for Research on Building, “Budget Outlook,” 2024.
- Given the economic factors influencing net migration, the employment policy in Germany, particularly in Wiesbaden, could be revised to attract more immigrants and reduce emigration.
- The drop in net migration from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, along with the stabilization or moderation in Germany's net migration, may have significant political implications for the general-news coverage of community policies within the European Union.
