Progress and Predictions: A Look Ahead at Tomorrow's World
In the upcoming NBA Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the clear favorites against the Indiana Pacers, but the lopsy-doodle odds have many bettors turning a blind eye to the Thunder's championship potential.
As per major sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings, the Thunder are priced around -700, meaning a bettor would need to dish out $700 to win a mere $100 on Oklahoma City's title. On the opposite end, the Pacers are listed as underdogs, with odds of roughly +500 at BetMGM and +475 at DraftKings.
Historically, this gap in odds is a rarity. The Thunder's status as heavy favorites is reminiscent of the 2018 Golden State Warriors, who opened at -1075 before sweeping LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers. Some might say it's a no-brainer, but CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall believes otherwise.
"I think they're probably going to win the series, but I don't see any value with that sort of price for them," Marshall said. "There's enough here that Indiana can make it interesting."
For those unwilling to risk the high stakes of the Thunder's moneyline, alternative bets shift focus to player props. Taking a chance on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder's star guard, to win Finals MVP seems like a no-brainer, given his playoff averages of 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. But Johnnie Avello, DraftKings' race and sports operations director, warns that the odds are steep.
"We know he's going to score 30 points at least every game," Avello said. "There's one game where he might be off a little bit. They still have to win because they're not going to give it to him if they lose the series."
The Pacers' dynamic duo, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, have also garnered attention. Siakam, who narrowly won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP over Haliburton, holds +1600 odds for Finals MVP, while Haliburton stands at +750.
An intriguing factor in the series is the disparity in road performance. The Pacers have excelled away from home, boasting a 6-2 record on the road this postseason, including wins at Cleveland and New York. Conversely, the Thunder have struggled outside Oklahoma City, failing to cover the spread in seven road playoff games.
Given the widening gap in odds and the Pacers' road success, it's no surprise that experts have mixed feelings about the series. The Thunder hold the advantage, but the Pacers' resilience and bettors' search for value hint at a more nuanced contest ahead.
Facts:
- Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy favorites to win the NBA championship this year, with odds as high as -700.
- The Indiana Pacers are significant underdogs, with odds of around +500 at various sportsbooks.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder's star guard, is favored to win Finals MVP at -600 at DraftKings, given his stellar playoff averages of 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game.
- The Pacers have a strong road performance this postseason, boasting a 6-2 record on the road.
- Series betting, game-by-game betting, props, and player performance, and bench depth and adjustments are all strategic considerations in betting on the NBA Finals.
- Home-court advantage, series momentum, and injury reports are additional factors influencing betting decisions.
- Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder's high odds of -700 to win the NBA championship, some experts see the Indiana Pacers as having the potential to make the series interesting due to their resilience.
- CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall expresses a lack of value in betting on the Thunder at such high odds, and instead suggests considering alternative bets like player props, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win Finals MVP.
- DraftKings' race and sports operations director, Johnnie Avello, warns that betting on Gilgeous-Alexander for Finals MVP comes with steep odds, as it's uncertain if he'll maintain his impressive playoff average in every game.
