Professional Prognostications for NHL: Insights from Knowledgeable Analysts on Thursday, May 15th
NHL BLOWOUTS - Experts' Predictions for games on May 15
Here's the lowdown for tonight's NHL brawls:
Hurricanes vs. Capitals: A Make-or-Break Encounter
Hurricanes (-180, 5.5) leading series 3-1
7 pm ET
Is this the end of the road for the Capitals and their star player, Alexander Ovechkin? The Caps are up against the wall, trailing three games to one against the Hurricanes. They need to dig deep, but wins here are hard to come by. This isn't new terrain for them, having won streaks of at least three games eight times during the regular season. They've also been successful at home in the playoffs, boasting a 4-1 record. On the other side, the Hurricanes experienced struggles during the season, with four losing streaks of at least three games.
This will be the 13th game where a team can close the series. In the past, closeout games have been decided by two goals or more in nine out of twelve instances, while eight games featured a combined six goals or more. The trailing team has won four times, and three times they've won by two goals or more. Both teams have been involved in potential closeout games before, with the Hurricanes edging out New Jersey in double overtime and the Caps besting the Canadiens. Only one game in the series has gone Over the total, but the second and third periods have been all about the Over.
** predictions:**1. Alexander Ovechkin to have Over 2.5 shots on goal in regulation = +1482. Taylor Hall to have Over 1.5 shots on goal in regulation = +1903. Winnipeg Jets to win by two or more goals = +3304. Dallas Stars to win by two or more goals = +240
Stars vs. Jets: Home Advantage at Stake
Dallas leads series 3-1
9:30 pm ET
The Jets are on the brink of elimination and are relying on their home advantage to turn things around. Their goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, has won five out of six games at home during the playoffs, despite giving up at least three goals in four of those victories. This will be Hellebuyck's third attempt at a closeout game, and he's only won once, with all losses coming with three or more goals conceded. The Stars' young defenseman, Thomas Harley, has made a significant impact with assists in consecutive games, and he's been particularly effective on the power play (all three assists in the series).
Star players Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor are leading the Jets in shots on goal (17 each) and goals scored (three each) in the series. Josh Morrissey has assisted in three straight games.
** predictions:**1. Thomas Harley to get half a power play point = +3002. Thomas Harley to score a goal = +7003. Winnipeg Jets to win by two or more goals = +1984. Dallas Stars to win by two or more goals = +2405. Dallas Team Total Over 2.5 goals = -1406. Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers to have Over 2.5 shots on goal each = +1587. Nikolaj Ehlers to score a goal = +2608. Adam Lowry to score a goal = +4609. Josh Morrissey to get half an assist = +135
Bonus Reading
### NHL Predictions: Expert Picks on Wednesday, May 14 ### NHL Predictions: Expert Picks on Tuesday, May 13 ### NHL Predictions: Expert Picks on Monday, May 12
## Background Information
### NHL Closeout Games: Overview and Trends
- Many NHL teams struggle in closeout games, with notable losing streaks well-documented. For instance, Toronto Maple Leafs have only managed to win once in 14 opportunities since 2018[4].
- Teams with Stanley Cup-winning players tend to perform better in closeout situations due to increased experience and composure under pressure. The Vegas Golden Knights, which boast 13 players who were part of their 2022-23 championship team, are a prime example[3].
- Aggressive teams that capitalize quickly on turnovers have gained the edge in closeout scenarios. Recent instances in the playoffs have seen teams like the Florida Panthers scoring four goals within 10 seconds over three consecutive games against the Maple Leafs, compared to the Leafs' two within the same timeframe[5].
- Historically, some teams have shown patterns in their performances when holding particular leads in playoff series. For example, the Maple Leafs have won 16 of 19 seven-game series when they've taken a 2-0 lead, with all 11 of those series kickstarted at home[5].
- Exceptional goaltending is crucial in closeout games[1].
- In the Hurricanes vs. Capitals game, the odds for Alexander Ovechkin to have Over 2.5 shots on goal in regulation align with expert picks, with a (+148) value.
- The sports betting world anticipates an intense match in the Stars vs. Jets game, with the odds for the Dallas Stars to win by two or more goals, another expert pick, standing at (+240).
