Present Predicament: India and Pakistan on the Brink
Probability of Military Conflict Between India and Pakistan
The world witnessed a spike in anxiety late last week as we approached the brink of a potential conflict between India and Pakistan. Under the name "Operation Sindoor", India's military struck nine targets within Pakistan's borders, marking another chapter in the prolonged dispute over the Kashmir region.
Pakistan's Leader Pledges Action in Response
For clarity, this piece will address your key inquiries:
Why did India attack Pakistan?
The Indian government has justified their actions based on the devastating terrorist attack that occurred two weeks prior to the missile strikes. On April 22, Islamic terrorists in the city of Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination within the Indian-controlled part of the contested Kashmir region, slaughtered 40 innocent individuals, many of whom were tourists from India.
India's Stance: expelling all Pakistani citizens
The Indian government alleges that Pakistan provides support to terrorist groups in the region, including Lashkar-e Taiba, a group that claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack. As a result, India reserved their strikes exclusively against Pakistani militant positions.
On the other side, the Pakistani government characterizes these actions as a "clear act of war," with at least 26 civilian fatalities and 50 injuries reported. However, these numbers remain unverified. The Indian narrative is supported by the fact that the Pakistani terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammed expressed condolences for the loss of several high-ranking members following the strikes.
Evidence of State Terrorist Support: A Longstanding Accusation
Western intelligence services have long supported the accusation that Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism in the region. Christian Wagner, an India expert at the Berlin Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), shares this perspective. "There were indications in the investigation of some major attacks in the past that the terrorists were in contact with the Pakistani intelligence service," Wagner stated in a website interview.
Pakistani Response: A Ticking Time Bomb
This brings us to the question: How will Pakistan respond to India's attack? On Wednesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened the national security council, and subsequently threatened: "Pakistan's armed forces reserve the right to respond in self-defense."
Expert Wagner explains that Pakistan cannot counterattack with strikes against terrorist infrastructure within India, as there is none. Consequently, any response might target military targets, which could lead to an escalation in hostilities.
India could then respond with further attacks against Pakistani military positions, increasing the risk of a continuous escalation spiral.
The Nuclear Threat: Unlikely but Grave
Despite the escalating situation, the likelihood of a nuclear war remains minimal. The two countries have engaged in military confrontations in Kashmir twice since the development of atomic weapons in 1998 (in 1999 and 2019). These incidents reveal that nuclear weapons do not always guarantee deterrence but provide an opportunity to engage in lesser-scale combat operations.
Military Superiority: India's Advantage
India has a significant military superiority over Pakistan, with approximately 1.5 million soldiers—three times as many as Pakistan—and a substantial amount of modern military equipment. In addition, India's stronger economy and political stability provide further advantages.
Unrest in Pakistan: A Major Concern
It's important to note that terrorism is not a new phenomenon in Pakistan. Attacks, such as those by Taliban supporters in the border region with Afghanistan and by independence fighters in the southwestern province of Balochistan, are common. Given these internal strife, the Pakistani government may not find it advantageous to engage in a military conflict with India.
Possible Mediators: Limited Interests
The U.S., China, and even Iran have advised both sides to exercise restraint. However, India sees itself as a major power and has openly expressed that it will not accept mediation by third parties.
Kashmir: A Legacy of Unrest
The dispute over Kashmir originated in colonial times, when the British transferred control of British India to India and Pakistan in 1947. Both sides claimed the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, where a Hindu ruler oversaw a Muslim population. The first war over Kashmir broke out, culminating in India gaining control of a significant portion of the territory it holds today.
China exploited the chaotic situation and conquered the Buddhist north of the region, which it continues to hold today.
Source: jar
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- The world reacts with anxiety as India and Pakistan's war-and-conflicts politics escalate, with the latest chapter being India's attacks on nine targets within Pakistan's borders, instigated by the Kashmir region's terrorist attacks.
- General news outlets note indications of state terrorist support in the region, with Western intelligence services, such as the Berlin Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), agreeing that Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism in the Kashmir region.
- In response to India's attacks, Pakistan's Leader, Shehbaz Sharif, has threatened action, stating that Pakistan's armed forces reserve the right to self-defense, although there are concerns about a possible escalation in hostilities.
- Despite the ongoing conflicts and tensions, the possibility of a nuclear war remains unlikely, but the potential for continuous escalation spiral remains a grave concern, as India has a significant military advantage over Pakistan.
