Probability of Achieving a Hole-In-One
In the world of golf, the hole-in-one is often referred to as the Holy Grail or the ever-elusive, never-foreseen, always-magical achievement. This prestigious feat is a significant milestone that every golfer dreams of achieving.
For the average golfer, the odds of holing out in one stroke are 12,000 to 1[1]. This means that for every 12,001 rounds of golf played, only one golfer will manage to score a hole-in-one. With around 450 million rounds of golf played every year, it's no wonder that approximately 128,000 holes-in-one are registered annually by the National Hole-In-One Registry[2].
However, the odds for professional golfers improve slightly. For a PGA Tour pro, the odds of holing out in one stroke are 2,500 to 1[3]. This means that these seasoned players have roughly a five times better chance of making a hole-in-one compared to average players, thanks to their superior skill and consistency.
Despite these improved odds, a hole-in-one remains a rare accomplishment even for professionals. The USGA does not require video proof for a registered hole-in-one, only a credible witness is needed[4]. Just about any ace, assuming no cheating or do-overs, is considered legitimate.
The average length of a hole on which an ace is scored is 147 yards[5]. A standard golf ball has a diameter of approximately 1.7 inches (4.3 centimeters), and the standard diameter of a golf hole is 4.25 inches (10.8 centimeters). This length is enough for more than 3,100 regulation-sized golf balls, end-to-end.
Notable professional golfers such as Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas have recorded hole-in-ones[6]. In fact, at the prestigious Masters tournament, both Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas have recorded hole-in-ones on the same day[7].
With over 15,000 golf courses in the United States and over 33,000 worldwide[8], the opportunity to experience the thrill of a hole-in-one is within reach for many golfers. However, the odds may not be in their favour, as the achievement remains as elusive as ever. But who knows, the next hole-in-one could be just around the corner!
Participating in golf tournaments, both amateur and professional, provides the chance to fiercely compete and potentially achieve the coveted hole-in-one, just like Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas have done, even on the same day at prestigious events such as the Masters tournament. To any avid golfer, the accomplishment of scoring a hole-in-one, despite seemingly long odds, represents the ultimate sports triumph in the world of golf.
