Prioritizing Russia and Iran, the United States needs to adopt a fresh guiding doctrine
In the tumultuous year of 1947, a foreign service officer and Russian specialist named George F. Kennan penned an influential article under the pseudonym "X" for Foreign Affairs magazine. Titled The Sources of Soviet Conduct, this article introduced the strategy of "containment" as a means to deal with the Soviet Union, a strategy that would become the intellectual foundation for U.S. Cold War policy.
Kennan's analysis, best known as the "Long Telegram," was a lengthy cable to the State Department that highlighted Russia's history of aggression before the Communist revolution. In his article, Kennan argued that Soviet expansionist pressure should be contained through a long-term, patient, but firm and vigilant application of counter-force by the United States.
The containment strategy was based on Kennan's previous analysis, including the 1946 "Long Telegram" from Moscow. He described Soviet leaders as driven by a combination of Marxist-Leninist ideology and geopolitical insecurity, ultimately hostile to Western capitalism and seeking to expand Soviet influence.
The strategy of containment involved actively countering Soviet advances elsewhere, including stationing sizable and permanent military forces in Western Europe. However, it wasn't limited to military action but also promoted prosperity through reducing trade barriers and pro-growth policies.
The world today is uncertain and lacks a clear guiding principle like containment, which could lead to potential trouble. Many leaders of advanced economies are struggling to create conditions for vibrant prosperity. The article implies that some U.S. policies are ill-conceived and lack reliable, confidence-inducing consistency.
The article suggests that the world is currently at loose ends, indicating a lack of direction or purpose. This uncertainty echoes the uncertainties faced in the late 1940s, when Washington's response to the Soviet Union's moves was confused and uncertain.
The Soviet Union, during that time, controlled powerful Communist parties in France and Italy, supported communist insurgencies in Asia, and opposed the removal of its forces from Northern Iran. It forcibly installed puppet communist governments in eastern and central European countries, refused to remove its forces from Northern Iran, and maneuvered to control the Dardanelles strait.
The influential article outlining the strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union after WWII was published in 1947 in Foreign Affairs magazine. Kennan's analysis gained significant influence within the U.S. government in shaping strategies for dealing with an aggressive Moscow. The strategy of containment, also known as "containment," was one of the most influential pieces in publishing history.
As we navigate the current global uncertainties, there is a need for the U.S. to find a new guiding principle to help steer its course. The article serves as a reminder of the importance of a clear, consistent, and well-thought-out strategy in dealing with international challenges.
Steve Forbes, reading the 1947 Foreign Affairs article by George Kennan on "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," might find parallels between the policy of containment as a North Star for U.S. foreign policy in dealing with the Soviet Union and what's ahead for today's war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation, and politics. Despite the uncertainties and general-news in today's world, a need for a clear, consistent, and well-thought-out strategy like the containment policy remains crucial for creating conditions for vibrant prosperity and mitigating potential trouble amidst the world at loose ends.
