Preseason NFL Betting Ideas to Take into Account for 2025
The 2025 NFL preseason is upon us, and with it comes a wealth of betting opportunities. Here are some key trends to consider as you make your picks:
Point Spread "Sweet Spot" Favorites with a point spread between -3.5 and -7 have been relatively reliable, going 155-133-4 against the spread (ATS) since 2010, though their 2025 record is weaker (4-7 ATS). However, underdogs priced at +1 to +3 points have been very profitable historically, with a 61% ATS win rate since 2015, and since 2024, underdogs in this range have gone 21-9 ATS.
Heavy Favorites Less Reliable ATS Teams favored by more than 7 points often win outright (10 of 16 since 2010), but perform poorly ATS (5-11, or 31.3%), cautioning bettors against blindly backing large favorites.
Stay Informed on Player Usage and Depth Charts Because coaches often rest starters and experiment with backups, understanding who will play is critical. Bettors focusing on depth chart news and obscure player performance histories can gain an edge.
Leverage Recent Team Behavior and Matchups Week 2 preseason trends have shown value in betting on certain teams as underdogs or moneylines, like Colts +2.5 or Ravens money line, and considering under totals in low-scoring matchups, reflecting conservative coaching and limited game scripts typical in preseason.
Moneyline Bets Require Careful Analysis As teams treat preseason as dress rehearsals, overreactions to Week 1 results can mislead bettors. Experts emphasize looking beyond initial performance and focus on longer patterns to find value moneyline picks.
Some other interesting trends to watch:
- Buffalo Bills are on a 7-1 ATS surge in preseason home games.
- Indianapolis Colts are on a 12-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production 41.3 PPG.
- Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 preseason games.
- Detroit Lions are on a 17-6 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 24.3 PPG.
- Miami Dolphins have gone 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS in its last 17 preseason games.
- Washington Commanders are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 preseason games.
- Chicago Bears went 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in three preseasons under coach Matt Eberflus but now turn to Ben Johnson.
- LAS VEGAS is on a 7-1-1 SU and 8-1 ATS preseason home game surge, holding opponents to 12.2 PPG.
- The New York Jets are 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 preseason games.
- Teams that scored very well in the last game tend to come back to earth in the next game.
- Teams that were held to fewer than 10 points in their previous preseason game have gone 58.4% Over the total in the next game since 2010.
- Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 preseason games, outscoring opponents 24.8-14.
- CAROLINA is on a 2-9 ATS skid in the last 11 preseason games following a win.
- The last six NY GIANTS preseason games following an outright win have gone Over the total, producing 52.3 PPG.
- SEATTLE is on a 10-2 Under the total run in home preseason games.
- NEW ORLEANS has gone Under the total in 10 of its last 11 games after a preseason win.
- Miami Dolphins are 6-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 preseason games.
- Preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total since September 2015, going 62.1% Under.
- DETROIT is on a 2-9 SU and 2-8 ATS skid in home preseason games.
Stay tuned for more trends and analysis as the preseason progresses!
- The 'point spread sweet spot' strategy, which involves betting on favorites with point spreads between -3.5 and -7, has shown promising returns in NFL preseason games since 2010, but be cautious as their recent record in the 2025 season is weaker (4-7 ATS).
- Underdogs with point spreads ranging from +1 to +3 have been very profitable historically, with a 61% ATS win rate since 2015, especially since 2024, where they have gone 21-9 ATS.
- Heavy favorites, favored by more than 7 points, may win outright more frequently (10 of 16 since 2010), but their ATS performance has been poor (5-11, or 31.3%), suggesting caution when blindly backing large favorites.
- Understanding player usage and depth charts is crucial in NFL preseason sports betting, as coaches often rest starters and experiment with backups, making it essential to stay informed about who will play in a game.
