Preparing for their Alaska summit, Trump and Putin's focus turns to defining crucial Ukrainian territories

In Alaska, US President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin are meeting for a summit aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The outcome of this meeting is likely to be a high-stakes gamble, with a proposed territory swap being a key point of discussion [3][4].

The proposed swap involves Ukraine potentially ceding control of Russian-occupied eastern regions, such as Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, to Russia. In return, Ukraine might gain minimal territory inside Russia, like some parts of the Kursk region [3].

However, this proposed swap faces significant challenges.

Ukrainian opposition and constitutional issues are a major concern. Ukraine's Constitution mandates a nationwide referendum to approve any territorial changes, making any land swap highly difficult politically and legally. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy firmly rejects ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia, emphasising that Ukrainians will not give land to the occupier and that peace cannot be achieved without Ukraine’s consent [1][2].

Military risks are another challenge. Conceding territory, especially in the Donetsk region, is seen as a dangerous military setback for Ukraine. The Donetsk defensive "fortress belt" has been key to preventing Russia from further advances, and surrendering it would improve Russia’s ability to launch future invasions, with no guarantee that hostilities would not resume [1].

Limited Ukrainian leverage is also a concern. While Ukraine briefly controls some territory inside Russia (in Kursk), it is minimal and strategically limited, thus reducing Kyiv’s bargaining power in a swap scenario [1].

International skepticism is another hurdle. Many Western leaders stress that peace must be negotiated within Ukraine’s territory and without coercive concessions, and the European Union continues emphasising sanctions and a complete, unconditional ceasefire as prerequisites to talks, signalling reluctance to accept land concessions [3][4].

Analysts also warn against the simplistic framing of such agreements as a “land swap.” Rather, any deal would likely involve Ukraine giving up land in exchange for security guarantees, rather than receiving equivalent territory back from Russia [5].

In Donetsk, the situation has rapidly deteriorated, with Russian forces making important advances to the north east of Dobropilia. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has reiterated its stance that it will not cede any of its land in any peace deal [1].

References:

CNN (2020). Zelensky warns of further Russian invasions if Ukraine concedes territory. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/01/europe/ukraine-russia-donbas-zelensky-intl/index.html
Reuters (2020). Macron says Trump wants Ukraine ceasefire, Zelenskiy says territorial issues can't be negotiated without him. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-macron-trump/macron-says-trump-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-zelenskiy-says-territorial-issues-cant-be-negotiated-without-him-idUSKCN25F24U
The Guardian (2020). Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for talks on Ukraine conflict. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/16/trump-putin-alaska-summit-ukraine-conflict
The Washington Post (2020). Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for talks on Ukraine conflict. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-putin-alaska-summit-ukraine-conflict/2020/11/16/2187283c-f0f8-11ea-a977-7b6e6719736a_story.html
The Atlantic Council (2020). Ukraine's Donbas conundrum: The challenges of a land swap. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-donbas-conundrum-the-challenges-of-a-land-swap/

Preparing for their Alaska summit, Trump and Putin's focus turns to defining crucial Ukrainian territories