Prepared to Implement Retaliatory Measures: Will Enact Snapback Sanctions if Iran Rejects Negotiations
The international community is watching closely as negotiations between the European Union (E3) and Iran over the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme reach a critical juncture. The E3 - comprising France, Germany, and the UK - have issued a stern warning to Iran, stating that if a diplomatic solution or an extension is not agreed upon by the end of August 2025, they are prepared to trigger the UNSC snapback mechanism to reinstate UN sanctions.
This warning follows a series of events, including the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites two months ago, and Iran's unanswered response to the E3's offer of a deadline extension following talks in Turkey last month. If Iran fails to comply or negotiate further by the specified date, the E3 will seek to activate the snapback mechanism under UNSC Resolution 2231 (2015), which legally allows for the reinstatement of all previous UN sanctions prohibiting uranium enrichment and other nuclear-related activities.
Should sanctions be reimposed, the international community aims to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. However, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) should sanctions snapback occur, increasing regional tension.
Iran finds itself in a strategic dilemma. Returning to talks with the US would mean admitting failure and relinquishing uranium enrichment, a move that Iran refuses to make. Failure to reach an agreement leads to renewed sanctions and possibly heightened conflict, with Israel also expressing concern over future uncertainty.
Some analysts argue that the negotiation goal should be the complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program under strict supervision, but Iran's current posture is firm against such concessions.
In response to the E3's threat, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has rejected the warning, stating that the European powers have no "legal or moral grounds" to act. The E3's warning was made in a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the Security Council. Britain, France, and Germany had previously informed the UN Security Council that they stand ready to trigger the snapback mechanism.
As the deadline approaches, the world waits to see if a diplomatic solution can be reached or if the snapback mechanism will be triggered, potentially escalating tensions further.
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