Prepare for continuing bouts of wet and stormy weather in Victoria
In the heart of Australia, a significant weather event is unfolding. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a natural climate cycle, is currently underway, and it's predicted to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to Victoria for the coming months.
The IOD event is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. During a negative IOD, waters in the central or eastern tropical Pacific become cooler than normal, while warmer waters near Indonesia enhance moisture supply, leading to increased rainfall over southern parts of the continent.
For Victoria, this means an increased likelihood of wetter conditions. Moist air moves eastward from the northwest, often resulting in significant rainfall events. Historical data indicate that negative IOD phases have been associated with some of the wettest winters and springs in Australia, influencing Victoria’s weather by increasing rainfall and sometimes causing flooding.
The current IOD event is particularly noteworthy. Australia has not experienced a negative IOD for two consecutive years since the 1960s. This weather system is bringing increased rainfall over much of southern and eastern Australia.
In Victoria, the rainfall can be heavy and accompanied by storms, leading to flooding in some cases. To prepare for such weather, it's important to keep gutters clean, trim trees, secure large items, have an emergency safety kit, and be prepared for a power outage. If you are caught in a rainstorm while driving, turn on your lights, avoid parking under trees or loose branches, and keep away from flooded waters, mud, debris, damaged roads, and fallen items like trees and powerlines.
The IOD event might pass the proverbial rain baton to La Niña, keeping the country soggy well into summer. South-east to north-westerly winds strengthen in the tropical and equatorial Pacific during La Niña, further enhancing the moisture supply and rainfall over southern Australia.
However, with increased rainfall comes the risk of severe weather such as strong winds, hail, storms, or flash flooding. It's crucial to stay updated with the Bureau of Meteorology's Victorian Warnings Summary and to ensure you are covered for damages with adequate Motor Insurance and Emergency Roadside Assist.
Victoria is at increased risk of floods due to the current IOD event and the wet conditions. If a storm is on the horizon, look to move vehicles under shelter if available, or under a tarpaulin. Keep up to date with the latest weather updates and stay safe during this period of increased rainfall.
References:
- Australia Faces Wet Conditions Ahead as Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Emerges
- Australian Climate Summary for the Financial Year 2020-21
- Bellingen Weather Ramblings
- Indian Ocean Dipole
- Australia Faces Wet Conditions Ahead as Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Emerges
- AO Update: Negative IOD Increases Chance of La Niña Forming in Latter Half of 2022
In the context of Australia's weather, the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, causing an increase in rainfall over southern parts of the continent, including Victoria. The heavy rainfall and potential storms can lead to flooding, necessitating preparations such as cleaning gutters, securing large items, having an emergency safety kit, and staying updated with weather advisories. With the potential of the IOD passing the "rain baton" to La Niña, South-east to north-westerly winds may further enhance moisture supply, and the risk of severe weather remains high in Victoria.
